An Under Reported Story: The Disappearing GOP Voter & More

By Patricia H Kushlis

Every time I see a poll asserting that 85% or some high percentage of GOP voters support Trump or a Trump administration policy, I say to myself – that’s not surprising but shouldn’t 85% of a declining number of supporters be the real story?  Yet the stories often ignore a decline that has been underway over the last decade perhaps because the current figures are not as readily available as they should be.  Yet, since 2009 or thereabouts, we know that Independents have comprised the largest group of American voters.  Democrats are second. Republicans are third.

Here’s the 2014 analysis from Pew Charitable Trust and information from a comparative Gallup chart that displays the percentages from January 2004-December 2018.  Both Pew and Gallup are reputable polling organizations:   

“Pew:  The share of independents in the public, which long ago surpassed the percentages of either Democrats or Republicans, continues to increase. Based on 2014 data, 39% identify as independents, 32% as Democrats and 23% as Republicans. This is the highest percentage of independents in more than 75 years of public opinion polling.

When the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account, 48% either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; 39% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. The gap in leaned party affiliation has held fairly steady since 2009, when Democrats held a 13-point advantage (50% to 37%)

Gallup’s chart of American voters for Dec.3-12, 2018 shows:  39% consider themselves Independents; 32% Democrats and 26% Republicans.  In comparison, for the same time period in 2004 which was the earliest reported on the chart, 29% identified as Independents, 37% as Republicans and 32% as Democrats.  

One more look at Gallup stats:  For December 2018, those identifying as Republican and Republican Leaning Independents were 40% while 47% identified as Democratic or Democratic leaners.  At the same time period December 2004, those identifying as Republican and Republican Leaning Independents were 48% and 45% as Democrats and Democratic Leaning.

It looks like the decline in GOP party membership began under George W Bush with his ill-advised invasion of Iraq but it has continued during the Trump administration.  This is why the party has gone to such lengths to retain or gain power through voter suppression and gerrymandering as opposed to seeking to broaden its electoral appeal beyond its aging base.  

Details, details

Although the media was slow to recognize it – perhaps because they were burned in 2016 for predicting a Clinton win – but a Blue Tsunami did occur on November 6, 2018.  In fact, the major reason the GOP even won the Senate was because far more Democratic Senators were up for reelection in conservative states than GOP.  The media too often neglects to mention this as well.

The results in the 2018 House races have given the Democrats a 40 or 41 seat advantage, a phenomenal number which the country has not seen in decades – since Watergate if not before.  This creaky democratic system is based on checks-and-balances; and it’s clear the US electorate in November decided it was time to add a check into a system that had given far too much power to a single party – and to the party that represents a minority of the voters at that.

And yes, even this partial check will make a difference in two important ways: 

    1) it makes it possible for the new Congressional Democratic majority to veto Trump administration initiatives; and

    2) more importantly, given the tenor of this administration, it allows House Committee chairs like Adam Schiff who heads the all-important House Intelligence Committee to hold hearings and subpoena witnesses in the Trump-Russia investigation which Devin Nunes, the former GOP Committee Chair, either refused to hold or buried the results of those he didn’t approve of in the House basement.  Schiff, however, knows where those testimonies are stashed and has already stated that they will soon see the light of day - plus there will be more.  Thus Nunes’ cover up of Trump's Russia connections will shortly disappear into thin air like Puff the Magic Dragon or the vapors from Aladdin’s magic lamp.

Then there’s Maxine Waters, the new chair of Financial Services who Trump has called a “seriously low IQ person” and who will “likely work to reinstate consumer protection regulations eroded by the Trump Administration;” Jerry Nadler, Judiciary, “who has long sparred with Trump and has already said he'll initiate probes into sexual assault and perjury allegations against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Trump's ousting of Attorney General Jeff Sessions; and  Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings, the new chair of the oversight committee, who has said he'll launch inquiries into voter suppression and alleged fraud in the Trump administration.”   I hope Waters looks into Trump’s questionable finances as well - beginning with his income taxes.