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Channeling My Father for Easter

By John Charles Dyer, UK Correspondent

30 March 2013. Lytham St Annes, Lancashire.

Easter was one of my two favourite days once upon a very long time ago in a place now 7,500 miles far, far away.  Contemplating Easter as it approaches, I can hear my father turning cartwheels in my head, but not in a good way. He's not happy. Not happy at all. 

Easter

Easter Sunday churches across the United Kingdom and the United States heave with families feeling their way around a sometimes unaccustomed environment. Young women in fine hats join the regulars, the older women wearing Lavender. Men sport polished shoes & pressed suits, stretching necks discomforted by the tightness of neckties last worn Christmas service.  The old regulars wear no tie at all. Both the regulars and the Christmas and Easter crowd eye each other maybe with just a little judgment (kept to themselves of course).

The faithful gather in plain wooden structures or in remarkable, richly adorned palaces called Cathedrals. They sway, singing the old hymns, performing the old, corporate rituals. Some smile those utterly vacuous, vacant smiles which more accurately imitate a drug ecstasy than a religious experience. Some plumb the depth of Easter's meaning with earnest contemplation. All churches smell of abundant flowers & orris root perfume. The social halls echo to the sounds of children eagerly anticipating Easter egg hunts & Chocolate bunnies.

All is joy & warm fuzzies ... except ...

... except for the poor, the disabled, the vulnerable, the widow, the “demobbed” (newly separated) soldier, the debtor, the redundant (laid off), the homeless, the mother without a husband and the children who would be without any food this Easter but for overworked food banks.  These languish willfully unseen by officialdom, disconsolate and feeling abandoned by their neighbours, many of whom, this Easter, stuff the pews. 

A host of draconian new measures go into affect in the United Kingdom the day after Easter. In the past benefits recipients were relieved from Council tax (a local property tax paid by the resident not necessarily the owner). Not as of April 1. As of April 1 they will also pay a penalty if they have a "spare" room, dubbed the bedroom tax. While inflation rises their grants are now capped below inflation. They are forced to accept any work that presents itself including without further compensation or suffer draconian sanctions. 680,000 thus far have been. The list goes on and on of the changes to welfare that grow the food banks, children on the streets, suicides and hate crimes against the disabled, but not the promised way out of "the welfare trap" to almost any.

Please tell the RNC - It’s the message, not the media

By Patricia H. Kushlis

Two weeks ago Friday, David Brooks – upon learning that the U.S. unemployment rate had fallen to 7.7% in February with over 200,000 new jobs added – told Judy Woodward on the Newshour that if one combined the good jobs news with the bad sequestration news the US was experiencing the norm:  because the business cycle works independently from politics – and there is little, if anything, politicians can do to make the economy grow.  Essentially, Brooks argued that the economic growth of this country was out of its politicians’ hands.

This is certainly not the first time I’ve heard the politics/economics disconnect argument, but I wonder about its’ accuracy.  I also wonder if a Republican, not a Democrat, had been in the White House whether we would have heard Brooks’ pontification in such reverentially canonic terms.

The deep economic recession this country entered in 2007 as a result of poorly regulated banks and financial institutions that brought about the housing bubble, Lehman’s demise and the stock market collapse might well have been avoided had those pesky government regulations and regulators remained in place.  Furthermore, had this country not been spending zillions of dollars (something like $8 trillion and counting) to fight two wars in the Middle East simultaneously – one entered into on spurious grounds and the other which could have been handled more smartly, efficiently and cheaply from the outset through far more limited and targeted action – the US government would have had an easier time applying Keynesian economic principles when (and if) the economic seas became rough because the Treasury would not have had to borrow so deeply or the Federal Reserve go through such contortions to keep the economy from total collapse.

Keynes

British economist John Maynard Keynes, the right-wing’s bête noir and guru of the left, argued in the 1930s that governments needed to run deficits to keep the unemployed from starving or freezing to death so as to get through the rough patches when a country’s economy tanked.  Whereas governments needed to recoup, regroup and run a budgetary surplus when the private sector economy hummed along on all four cylinders.   Unfortunately, George W Bush, the most recent of America’s over-spenders, forgot – or never knew - the second part of Keynes’ prescription as he operated the US economy on a war footing for most of his two year term that ended in the “Great Recession” debacle.

The British government under the Coalition has also forgotten – or actually it has intentionally thumbed its nose at Keynes despite his British origins.  Most recently the British economy took a hit from the debt rating agencies because, in essence, its austerity programs have failed.  Why?  Sometimes it’s necessary to pump prime to get an economy moving again so that a country can grow its way out of recession.  It’s not all that counter-intuitive. Really.

Is the UK economy in transient Recession or indefinite decline?

 By John Charles Dyer, UK Correspondent 

20 March 2013 Chancellor George Osborne announced his 2013 Budget to Parliament. He also announced the economic forecasts that affected it.  As aptly characterized by the Leader of the Opposition, Ed Miliband, estimates of economic growth and government revenues are down, borrowing is up and there is precious little in the budget to address the ailing economy.  On the contrary, the Chancellor argued that the failure of the plan proves its necessity. He even argued it is beginning to work. 

Subsequently the independent Office for Budget Responsibility held a press conference to elaborate on the detail of those forecasts. The forecasts are dismal, but one should remember, the forecasts have proven in the past to be over optimistic. Their announcement proved a cannon shot in an echo chamber.   

Others in the days ahead will examine these forecasts and the budget in detail. I expect it will be some time before analysts have dissected the fine print. I want to focus on one set of figures that I believe may not only undercut the Chancellor’s few more optimistic assertions but raise a fundamental question about the UK economy.  

Is the UK economy experiencing a transient Recession or is it in indefinite decline?  

Shortly after the Chancellor’s presentation the Office of National Statistics replied to my latest Freedom of Information Request.   

One set of figures leapt out.  Comparing the last quarter of 2008 to the last quarter of 2012, ONS estimates employment among people aged 16 or older increased only 402,000 from 29,328,000 to 29,730,000.  

This figure certainly seems to be out of synch with the Chancellor’s claim that the private sector alone had created 1,25 million new jobs since the election.  I have in at least 4 previous articles addressed how misleading were the government’s often repeated prior claims that the private sector had created 1 million new jobs since the election. I won’t repeat all that here. Suffice it to say that ONS could not and would not confirm 1 million “new” private sector “jobs.” Moreover, even a brief review of the detail readily available through ONS shows wishful thinking the hopes of those who suggest - as the Chancellor repeated today- increased “in employment” stats are signs the economy is healing and the government on the right track.  

Of more fundamental importance is an associated statistic.  The percentage of people over aged 16 in employment fell between the last quarter of 2008 and the last quarter of 2012, from 59.6 percent of the population to 58.7 percent.  The economy provides employment to a smaller percentage of the working age population. 

Leveson the Final Chapter (until the next one)

By John Charles Dyer, UK Correspondent

18 March 2013. Today Prime Minister David Cameron, Deputy Leader Nick Clegg, Labour Leader Ed Milliband and the House of Commons passed the test of democracy in a way  the US Congress could perhaps find instructive.   At 2:30 AM, after intensive negotiations, all parties came to an agreement on a method to implement Judge Leveson’s recommendations with regard to the regulation of press ethics and excesses. 

The specifics of the agreement were nobody’s first choice. Yet the the specifics do represent real progress.  Especially in light of a breakdown in those very talks the previous Friday, the compromise those specifics represent was a welcome surprise.  

Cynics will argue it came about only because the Prime Minister faced a severe defeat in a vote set for the evening of 18 March. In the days ahead the compromise will be dissected and analyzed. The Press Barons will squeal. Unintended consequences will emerge. We will find reasons to be disappointed.   It is by no means a certainty that today's deal will hold up over the days ahead. The Press Barons can not be expected to stop their full court press.  Some knees may weaken.

But the bottom line is, the Prime Minister compromised. The Deputy Prime Minister compromised. The Labour Leader compromised.  The House of Commons compromised. This is critical because compromise -- not my way or the highway -- is the essence of democratic governance.   

It is important -- especially for those of us who so often feel free to criticise the Prime Minister -- to recognize, support and encourage the Members and the Leaders for doing so even though it is not yet a final done deal. In reality rarely is anything ever a final done deal in politics.

In the days ahead one only hopes the Members and the Leaders have the courage to hold to their decision. The hard reality of politics is one can do much good if one is willing to accept its fundamental cost - one will make enemies by doing and one or more of those enemies will one day get one. To compromise on a very difficult subject like press regulation, affecting arguably one of the United Kingdom’s historically strongest interest groups is an exemplary act of political courage.

Congratulations to all involved. 

No Frames No Boundaries Revisited

By John Charles Dyer, UK Correspondent 

I have vivid memories of the night of 13 December 1984.  On 13 December 1984 Beyond War and the USSR State Committee for Television and Radio jointly presented “Spacebridge."  

I was there.   

Spacebridge

A crisp clear night embraced San Francisco's Masonic Auditorium.  Inside, excitement built among the more than 3,000 attending.  Television would soon link us with Muscovites. We would see each other as we talked -Skype before Skype but on a mass scale.    

The occasion was the first annual “Beyond War Award,” presented that night to the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War.  Bernard Lown, MD and his Soviet counterpart, Evguenni Chazov, MD accepted on behalf of the organization.   

I belonged to Beyond War -- a movement birthed by Creative Initiative Foundation of Palo Alto (to which I also belonged). I had already volunteered over 20 hours per week for over a year by this time.  Less than 500 couples launched Beyond War at Stanford Chapel.  By 13 December 1984 the movement exceeded 20,000 committed participants.  

No Frames No Boundaries was Beyond War's video statement of faith. Rusty Schweickart's experiences in space, narrated by the former astronaut, play a pivotal role in the development of the video's theme.  

Beyond War as an organization may have differed somewhat from what you might expect. Many at the centre of the movement were Republican leaning businessmen and professionals.  The influence of Stanford University was omnipresent.  This was not a poor people’s movement. It was not a worker's movement. It was a Silicon Valley/ Bay Area movement.  

They were a high powered lot. Creative Initiative's revered founder had been a Stanford Law School professor. One member was a physician engaged in the joint US-USSR space medicine programme. Another was the "R" in ROLM Corporation. A third had been a White House fellow, an entrepreneur who retired in his early 30's.  A fourth had been counsel to the US Defense Department under President Ford. 

The event did not disappoint.   

Mel Swope, a well known Beyond War member, was Spacebridge's creative consultant. Dan Dippery, another member, directed audio visial.  Dippery had been Vice-President of Batten, Barton, Durstine and Osborne.   

Bill Burch of “Fame” fame directed the music. Etta James performed an original song, “Beyond War,” she composed for the occasion. William Goldstein contributed an original musical score. Goldstein had previously composed the “Celebration Overture” for the National Symphony Orchestra’s US Bicentennial celebration at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Paul Winter and Paul Halley performed Winter’s beloved hymn, “The Blue-Green Hills of Earth,” from his famed “Missa Gaia/Earth Mass.”  The Gosteleradio Childrens Chorus of Moscow joined them, along with the San Francisco’s Boys Chorus.     

But the most moving bit had to be the Spacebridge itself.  

The New Great Game? Russia, China and Central Asia

By Patricia H. Kushlis

Throughout the Gorbachev years and before, the Soviet Union’s five Central Asian Republics (otherwise known as the -stans) were the strongest supporters of the Soviet Union.  When the collapse came, they were also the least prepared for independence politically or economically.  Prior to their forced assimilation into the Russian Empire in the 19th century, they had been Turkic or Persian speaking Muslim khanates with all that they entailed.

As part of the Soviet Union, a kind of modernization was brought to the region.  Women were freed of the veil – sometimes forcibly - and required to go to school.   They still, however, often produced large families – and when the Soviets sought “hero” mothers with 14 or so children to deify, the authorities turned to the Central Asians because few, if any Russians, Slavs, Balts or Moldovans, met the numeric requirements.

Meanwhile, Moscow used Central Asians as wartime cannon fodder and conscript brigades were sent to repair Moscow’s streets, water and sewer systems. Stalin divided the khanates into republics fractionalizing the ethnicities according to the best divide and rule policies of the time – an historic fact of life that continues to prove an irritant to amicable relations among and within the republics thereby causing friction and instability domestically and providing a convenient way for Russians and others to manipulate the five largely authoritarian countries to their advantage.   

What is perhaps less generally known is that by the 1970s the Soviets regularly transferred wealth from the European parts of the Union to Central Asia to keep the Central Asians materially satisfied so that the Russians and other Slavs could continue to rule the vast region and its resources unchallenged.  They also controlled the republics through a "second in command" system (namely by placing a Central Asian to the top position and a ethnic Russian as deputy.)

Furthermore, for the most part, the Soviets kept the Central Asians isolated.  Strict travel and emigration restrictions meant that they had little contact with the West, could not establish residency in the prestige cities of Moscow and Leningrad and their only bases for comparison – if they had them at all – were India, Pakistan and Afghanistan – countries most directly to their south.

Of the Central Asian republics, only Kazakhstan has produced substantial petroleum.  So it’s no surprise that today this republic remains the richest of the five. And by 1991, it’s quite likely that a majority of the republic’s population was Slavic – if not Russian – despite what the then census claimed.

The other Central Asian republics had basically been caravan stops on the ubiquitous Silk Road with multiple branches that ran from eastern China to Istanbul from the Middle Ages onward although Uzbekistan's cotton crop was prized within the Soviet Union itself.    

"Voting Against Freedom"

In Joshua Kucera’s article, “Voting Against Freedom,” in the Winter 2013 Wilson Quarterly, the author seeks to answer the question as to why democracy has failed in the former Soviet Union – with the exception of the Baltic Republics and Moldova – and criticizes the Clinton State Department and Obama Administration for pretending that democracy building there remains a realistic goal for US foreign policy. 

At the looming of the dreaded triple dip

By John Charles Dyer, UK Correspondent 

9 March 2013. The long dreaded “triple dip” GDP contraction looms, a dark ruin rising among leaf bare trees at the unfolding end of a sunken, muddy hedgerow.  The UK lost its prized AAA credit rating last month. Twenty High Street shops close per day. In early March the pound plunged to a new two and a half year low against the dollar.  

While there have been increases in employment this last year, around half of this increase was attributable to part time work for which the median wage was a meagre £155 a week. Total net increases in employment haven’t kept pace with either the annual growth in the persons looking for work or the general population the work must support.   

It is widely anticipated ONS will report in April that GDP contracted yet again this quarter. It would be the realization of the now dreaded triple dip.  

The usual suspects respond as usual 

Yet the usual suspects continue to see what they believe rather than believe what they see. They continue to report as fact statistics later disavowed by the agenies that allegedly produced them.

8 March 2013 both BBC and Sky News reported construction output “unexpectedly” slumped during February to the lowest levels since the mid 1980’s. If the slump continues throughout March the first quarter of 2013 will see the lowest level of output since 1986. In the same report Sky News reported without irony business confidence in the industry nevertheless remains strong.   

5 March 2013 BBC reported new manufacturing orders also “unexpectedly” shrank in February. Again without irony,  BBC focused on business leaders’ expressions of confidence. In its Breaking News analysis BBC continued to cite Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported increases in employment as evidence there are nevertheless signs the economy is turning around despite fears of a triple dip recession, despite conflicting reports from both Whirled View and ITV Tonight. 

7 March 2013 Business Secretary Vince Cable broke ranks (however mildly), arguing for a “Plan A Plus” investment in construction even if such an investment means borrowing to pay for it.  Cable’s Party leader, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, quickly explained away the Business Secretary’s injudicious lapse. Of course the Business Secretary still agrees with the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and Clegg that there is no alternative to the course the government is already following. Ignore that little matter of “Plan A Plus.”  By the night of the 8th Secretary Cable was once again rounded up and contained.

Sequester’s Silver Lining: Limits to Defense Spending

By Patricia H. Kushlis

Maybe there is a silver lining to the latest Washington impasse between the President and Congressional Republicans.  The sequester – which began this weekend - hasn’t yet caused the financial markets to behave like Pogo but such mindless budget cuts would - if allowed to bite deep into federal government services and support to the states and private sector are drastically diminished.

I remember the last government shutdown in a bitterly cold December when we were sent home early over the Christmas holidays, the National Parks and museums were closed and the passport office stopped issuing passports.  I also remember being one of the last people in my agency to leave the building – as it grew bitterly colder because the warmth of the humans who worked there and provided the heat were no longer there.      

By large measure, the majority of Americans blame the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, not the president, for the reductions that could take effect. And sequestration has become the flavor of this month’s news reporting and commentary especially inside the Beltway but also at places like Virginia’s Hampton Roads where much of the population is supported directly or indirectly by the military.

You’d think the Republican law makers (and breakers) would remember what happened to then House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s popularity after he challenged President Bill Clinton to a budgetary duel that December years ago. But I guess not.

This is largely a new crew that marches to its own ideological drum – led by chief drum major Grover Norquist, right wing radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh and other likeminded libertarians who think that government is an impediment to their pursuit of the all-mighty dollar and retention of their semi-automatics.        

But if sequestration does come to pass, it will finally dictate cuts to the bloated Pentagon which consumes a good 20 percent of this country’s expenditures.  The problem is that the cutbacks are across the board and will also hit far smaller peacetime agencies with even greater force because there’s less to cut. The so-called "entitlements", however, will apparently not be affected.

Perhaps a piece of the Republicans intransigence on defense spending is that they don't understand that the country’s first line of defense should be diplomacy not budget-busting tanks or expensive outdated weapons systems designed to challenge the invisible – far from invincible - Soviet battalions once-upon-a-time on alert at the Fulda Gap and, by-the-by, continue to enrich Lockheed-Martin and its myriad of subcontractors in the process. 

In contrast, all American diplomatic efforts – including foreign aid – come to no more that 2 percent of the national budget and the country’s diplomatic personnel totals less than all the musicians in US military bands combined.  This, in case anyone is interested, is a ratio of 20 to 2.

In an article in the January 28, 2013 New Yorker entitled “The Force: How Much Military is Enough?” Jill Lapore quotes President Dwight D. Eisenhower, one of this country’s greatest wartime generals.

Eisenhower warned in his first major speech as president which he delivered to the American Society of Newspaper Editors in 1953, that “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.  This is a world in arms. This world is not spending money alone; it is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. . . This is not a way of life in any true sense.  Under the clouds of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.”