By: John Charles Dyer, UK Correspondent
15 August 2012.
It’s a time of smoke signals. They drift across the patchwork quilt of emerald fields and timeless cottages and churches, early morning remnants of last night’s campfires.
Smoke Signals
One newspaper’s headlines report Liberal Democrat activists advising their leader to “get tough” with the Tories. Another newspaper solemnly cautions Tory MPs who counseled their leader, time to cut the red tape.
More significantly, one of the Coalition’s more credible figures- Defence Secretary Philip Hammond- told the Independent that the failures of G4S shows government cannot rely on the private sector to perform all public services. Lest one jump to conclusions (as some did) Hammond wasn't “off message.” Within 24 hours one of the Coalition’s least credible figures, Jeremy Hunt, agreed. Government might need to rethink how much to rely on the private sector to provide public services.
Articles have appeared which echo the Prime Minister’s prediction Britain faces austerity through 2020. They ask rhetorically whether the British public will tolerate it, whether Britain is headed into depression, whether the government should change course. Raising the issues, they then assert - without citing who - “most economists” don’t think the UK faces a depression. Things will improve. Government should stay the course.
Some commentators argue all of this is just the usual blah-blah before the spate of annual Party Conferences. These take place in September as Parliament’s holiday recess concludes.
I think there is more to it than annual ritual. Some comments smack of political fishermen trying out new spinners to see if any fish “hit” the new lure, prior to choosing the spinners for "the season."
The breeze whispers “general election”
The scheduled general election is 3 years away. Am I thinking a Coalition split is imminent? Not really, although it is possible. There are rumblings. But I can't say either partner intends to stampede Party and public into a general election.
For one thing, Liberal Democrats may not have enough money. They will, in any event, face a loss of seats, maybe a significant loss. By bolting they lose any chance of redeemption with the public (a dubious prospect, but, hey, hope springs eternal).
Conservatives may be more unhappy than Liberal Democrats. But polls suggest Labour could beat both Conservatives and any combination of Conservatives with any other party. The prospect of putting all possible partner Parties together may exist in some parallel universe, but not this one. Besides, Conservatives don’t really want to share.
The real Conservative worry is the electorate. If held today the electorate would likely punish Conservatives except in "safe" seats. Some already teach their children to never trust Conservatives again.
Still, the breeze does whisper “general election.”
Reasons
Embarrassment.
This government failed embarrassingly at what counts. It turned an economic crisis into a disaster. The list of leading figures caught in one corrupt web or another is long and growing. The Chancellor’s handling of last year’s budget was an unmitigated debacle, poorly handled even in the Tory Prime Minister’s strong suite- Public Relations. Yes, William Hague and Philip Hammond perform credibly in their respective roles. Yes, the Olympics went well. But any successeses only highlight the general impression of incompetent, corrupt “posh boys,” taking care of their own, not equal to the task of taking care of the country.
Political necessity
Conventional punditry counsels the Coalition partners to stay together. Nothing to be gained in splitting now.
But, professionals know that even three years out it is none too soon to reinvent and distance a Party from a failed government.
An alternative grows in credibility. Regroup. Re-assert core Party principles even if that means sacrificing power temporarily to regain credibility with the base and Party-leaning independents. Save the seats that can be saved.
Partnered or split, political wisdom considers it time to lay the ground work for a general election campaign in which the interests of Conservatives diverge from the interests of Liberal Democrats.
Snowballing
The resulting repositioning creates a tricky dilemma. The reverberations from the game of reinvention predictably has unpredicted and uncontrolled consequences. Partners may well reposition themselves into corners from which the only way out is divorce.
The next scheduled general election is 3 years away. But a breakdown in the Coalition during the growing ambiguity, ambivalence, and hard feelings flowing from repositioning could bring on the general election much earlier. This, in turn, increases pressure to accelerate repositioning and distancing, engendering a snowballing effect.
All of which leads to the people's time of leverage
Whether 2015 or earlier, a time of reinvention, repositioning, and distancing is a time of opportunity for the dissatisfied and ignored “little people.”
The people’s hope has never been in a change in governing Party per se.
There is often little difference between the Parties. Professional politicians are generally inherently cautious. Many across Party lines have more in common with each other than with the electorate. Ideologies and dialogue have become so corrupted and confused that one cannot count on the actual "do" to bear a relationship to the rhetoric. Promises vary only enough to induce the electorate to choose.
Moreover, as Parties reposition, so will the Special Interests who influence the actual agenda in office of every Party. They will try to pick and back the next winner enough in advance with enough resources the winner will be in their debt.
The people's hope has always been for the coming sooner rather than later of the time when every Party must convince a substantial plurality their Party is the one on the electorate's side. This gives the people leverage. Campaigners must come to them. They will hope the people don’t notice the hat in hand. They will hope to secure support in exchange for only vague hints of minimum accountability. But however campaigners come, they know they must stay within the lines in the sand or face oblivion. That is the people’s leverage.
That time is now
My advice to the people is, use this time to assert those lines in the sand.
My advice to the politicians, regardless of Party. This government used up all the PR gimmicks, all the "get out of jail free cards," all of the non-commital hints. Yes, Boris is entertaining, but unless you hope to replace Ronald MacDonald it probably isn’t going to work for you. This government trampled lines in the sand. Don't think because you wear a different colour tie you can disregard those lines. Conform, change or be changed out.