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No Comment

By Patricia H. Kushlis

Sometimes “no comment” really is the best response to a tough question from the media regarding a seemingly difficult and sensitive situation.  Sometimes, however, it is not.  Especially when a more than two-syllable response is 1) actually not all that difficult to formulate and 2) when something appropriate can be uttered in response. 

 I was struck over the Memorial Day Weekend by the State Department’s refusal to comment on two entirely separate cases both regarding employees – the first was a refusal to respond to media queries regarding the strange and unsettling apparent suicide of US Embassy Barbados Regional Security Officer George Gaines whose body was found at White Sands Beach early May 12.

The second was to a question from  Lisa Rein of The Washington Post about a letter to the Department from the American Civil Liberties Union that stated that the Department was violating Peter Van Buren’s constitutional rights by trying to fire him.  Van Buren is the author of the controversial and critical book “We Meant Well” on US post conflict operations in Iraq, stories based on his own experiences.  With the ACLU now in the legal picture, this case could be headed for the Supreme Court.  The ACLU, I’m told, selects its cases carefully.

I realize the Van Buren case is exceedingly complex and must be devilishly jarring to State’s administrative staff especially those who work in the Offices of Human Resources and Legal Affairs.  Just think of all those human resource specialists and lawyers who must be focusing on ways to “get” the controversial Van Buren rather than assign people to jobs or read over the texts of treaties with other countries before agreement.  What is more important after all? Making someone’s life insufferable or actually doing something that would defend the interests of the US?

The ACLU suit in support of Van Buren

Since a high profile law suit is in the works as a result of the ACLU’s decision to take State on and Van Buren still draws his salary even though he has been barred from the building and told to work from home, I suppose a “no comment” from a State Department Press Spokesperson to the Washington Post reporter is the better part of valor.  No use muddying the legal waters unnecessarily.

Had, of course, State not screwed up this case so badly from the get-go there would be no law suit, Van Buren’s book would have come out next year (after his retirement in September) to short lived acclaim  and State would have had a hard time harassing Van Buren and attempting to fire him based on – would you believe – the fact that he linked to Wikileaks from his blog because the cables on Wikileaks are, according to the Department, still classified and its employees forbidden to access them either from their office or home computers.

Now everyone else in the world with an Internet connection has access to those cables – except the people who actually wrote them.  This, however, does not seem to bother State’s Diplomatic Security Office – or maybe it’s Public Affairs - one wit.  This approach, however, is fighting a losing battle – and certainly not one to use as the rationale for firing an employee who apparently included nothing classified in his book and is nearing the Department’s exit anyway.  All the kerfuffle has done is to turn him into a kind of counter-culture cult hero for those who have had reservations about the US presence in Iraq anyway.  I’m waiting for the movie or maybe a television series. Wonder who Hollywood will cast as Van Buren?

In contrast, the Department’s response to the Barbados case is just plain bizarre.  As Domani Spero at Diplopundit points out that when an officer was murdered on Cyprus in 2007, the US Embassy  – almost immediately - issued a thoughtful and sensitive tribute to his family which the public affairs section, posted – among other places - on the Embassy website.

Singing in a Drought's Abundant Rain in Exeter, Devon

Singing in a Drought's Abundant Rain in Exeter, Devon

By: John C. Dyer, UK Correspondent

 It was raining the morning I set out to visit Exeter.   

It has long been said Britain has weather not climate, a nod to the weather’s changeability. But a new British reality is unfeasible drought punctuated by untenable downpours, leading to floods that seem to defy all expectations that come with the word, "drought."  It is the second year of a British drought severe enough for water use restrictions in some parts of the country.  But the South West, my destination, was on flood watch due to record downpours.   (Photo left "Vintage Exeter Roof in Rain"  by John C. Dyer, May 2012)  

Incidentally, because of the weather’s changeability, traveling in the UK requires at least two essentials- an all weather coat and a sensible pair of shoes.  You can get by without an umbrella, but not the coat. The weather can change from sunshine to storm within a half hour.  Sensible shoes are critical. You may see women dressed in 5 inch heels. This custom is called “fashion.”  But for the traveller, high heels may be the truest symbol of British austerity- not austere, in fact ostentatious, but undoubtedly horribly uncomfortable, especially walking along all those hills.  Wear sensible, comfortable shoes with great arch support. Your knees will thank you in the morning. 

A Journey by Rail (with travel tips)  

I set out from St Annes. The rain formed beautiful droplets on Spring’s new blossoms, foreshadowing hope for a holiday more enjoyable than the rains might have suggested possible.  

St. Annes is a community within the community of Lytham St. Annes. While neighbours the two towns have a different feel to them.   (Photo left "Sated Tulip" by John C. Dyer, May 2012)  

This summer that feel will be busy.  Golf’s biggest professional tournament comes to the Royal Lytham Golf Course, which runs like a green belt through St. Annes.  I shop Marks and Spencer. Their St. Annes outlet is hardly larger than a US 7/11 convenience store. It is always busy, but they estimate during the tournament as many as 10,000 people will shop there each day. Whew. 

I traveled to Exeter by rail, with an overnight stop in Bristol, Somerset.     

Rail has the place in British life air travel has in California. I have often seen BBC  interview the Chancellor , the shadow Chancellor or the leader of the opposition during their routine rail commutes between their constituencies and London.  For a visitor rail presents the advantages of dependability, wide access through the country, good directions for a new user, and, in First Class, comfort.   

As an example of how user friendly it can be, when I arrived in Preston to make connections for Bristol I learned that my connection had been delayed due to a safety problem further up the track.  Even as anxiety set in, the cheerful crew at the highly visible information booth set the old codger’s mind at ease. They explained to me just how to deal with it. They permitted me to use their telephone gratis to call my wife to advise her of the expected 20 minute delay.  Although I missed the scheduled connection in Bristol as a result, I just caught the next train with the same ticket. It was all quickly sorted by the onboard ticket taker.  With trains departing every 30 minutes I didn’t really notice a difference.  

Rail’s main disadvantages are relative lack of luggage space, particularly for large items, and crowding during peak hours.  For visitors who prefer a low fat, low cholesterol diet I suggest you consider buying your own prior to the journey. You will not find your diet choice either on the train or in the stations.  If you want to avoid noisy crowds and cell phones try for the “quiet car.”  

If you travel by rail with a reserved seat you will receive two tickets, one for the trip and one for the seat.  You must hold on to both. Both will be checked, predictably just after you decide that they aren’t going to bother this time.  Expect your ticket to be checked when you first set off and as you attempt to leave the station platform area. In fact, your ticket is your exit pass from the station. Don’t lose it.    

Other than that, trust the system, sit back, and enjoy the many sights and sounds of the journey. A rail journey in the UK is in-of-itself an adventure in discovery.  

As the train departed St. Annes the loudspeaker announced destinations.  I drifted bemused and amused by the pronunciation of "Oswald Twistle," a stop further down the line.  In this reverie it finally occurred to me the British are entitled to pronounce "Oswald Twistle" as they do, without an American saying to himself “how cute” or “how quaint.”  I don’t know if this was a transformative insight or just the haze of waking at “O Dark Hundred” to begin my journey.  (Photo Above "Impulse Power, Scotty" by John C. Dyer, May 2012)  

I soon settled in, watching the beautiful green, rolling countryside with its fields dotted by free ranging cattle and sheep, listening to the symphony of dialects spoken around me.  I remember registering just before nodding off that the “ot” in “Not” in a Glasgow accent  is pronounced “oh” as in French. So Not is “No.”   

Bristol

Victoria met me in Bristol.  We stayed overnight in Bristol before leaving for Exeter. 

I described Bristol at length in a previous post. One of the UK’s most vibrant cities, it is a blend of old and new. The Queen Elizabeth Hospital Boy’s School dates back to the time of Elizabeth I. 

The new flats and shopping areas of the redeveloped docks all came after Victoria moved away 20 years ago.    

 

 (Photo Up left  "Queen Elizabeth Welcomes Thee"; Photo Left "Brisol Port Flats" By John C. Dyer, May 2012)  

 

John Cabot was one of Bristol’s heros.  Memorials to his contribution to Bristol’s glorious past dot the city, from Cabot Tower 

to a bronze statue overlooking the dockyards.   

(Photo far left "Cabot Tower Bristol"; Photo left "Cabot Bronze" by John C. Dyer, May 2012)   

This sculpture symbolizes the vibrant unity of Bristol’s past and present. Cabot’s character-filled face gazes across the new development.   

His character filled hands rest casually crossed before him. He seems to tie together Bristol’s glorious past, vibrant present, and promising future. 

(Photo far left "Cabot Surveys Bristol Channel"; Photo left "Cabot Bronze Detail" by John C. Dyer, May 2012)       

 

Conservative Christians, Jews—and Muslims: A Question of Equity

By Patricia Lee Sharpe

Reading about the shush-the-victim philosophy that’s reigned within some ultra-orthodox Jewish sects in New York, I’ve been impelled to think more broadly about religious tolerance in the U.S.—and the glaring exception, which is Islam.

The U.S. has a history of accommodating dissenting sects, many of which have been given the legal space to live in virtually self-governing enclaves where women’s rights, to cite a common aberration, are systematically abused and where science dare not contradict the sect’s interpretation of scripture, be it Biblical or from texts of equivalent age or sanctity. Christian and Jewish sects have thrived in this atmosphere. 

Consider the Amish, Again

The Amish are a non-controversial case in point. Their horse-drawn buggies, almost invisible at night, needn’t carry lights or license plates.  Picture a two lane highway with no street lamps and black buggies with no headlights or taillights. Would you like to be driving along that road after dark? 

Other exemptions from state and local laws have also helped the Amish to preserve their pre-modern way of life. Long before home schooling became legally accessible to other families, Amish parents were allowed to opt out of the public education system, lest their children be contaminated with alien ideas.  They also didn’t have to vaccinate their kids. 

To this day the Amish live in a time-warp cocoon, rigorously enforcing internal conformity to keep change at bay.  Should any members of the community be so misguided as to reveal doubts, ask awkward questions or act out of sync, the Amish have a social-purification device.  This is called shunning, a form of social death.  Parents, siblings, spouse—none of them may speak to the offender, who has little choice but to move away.  Do not underestimate the agony involved in this process.

Mormons and Christian Scientists

Mormons, who profess a heretical form of Christianity, have also been able to perpetuate their hermetic traditions (traditions so totally shielded from public view that Anne Romney’s non-Mormon parents were barred from the wedding when their daughter married Mitt, leading me to wonder if this cruelty ever pricks Anne’s conscience).  Yet Mormons have multiplied mightily thanks to high birth rates and vigorous, wholly legal proselytization.  Of course, there was a price to pay for tolerance. Polygamy had to be renounced.  Even so, at this moment, in several states of the U.S., some Mormons are practicing polygamy. Living largely in close-mouthed, remote enclaves, they are mostly left in peace, unless it can be proven that seriously underage girls are being forced into marriage. 

The Line that Can't Be Crossed

So there are some lines that can’t be crossed when it comes to freedom of religion in the U.S.  To a very large extent those lines have to do with how children are treated.  Christian Scientists and adherents of other heterodox sects may not deny life-saving medical care to their children, even if parents and other adults are religiously obliged to let themselves die for lack of it.

When is a River Not a River?

By Patricia Lee Sharpe  


I’ve been walking along a nearly dry river lately, and I’ve had lots of company, including dogs with cold noses and cyclists who startled me because I didn’t hear them approaching on the smooth new pavement.  I’ve also encountered joggers, speed walkers, assorted chums strolling and chatting, skate-boarders and people pushing baby carriages—a microcosm of the community, in fact, some in good shape, some in need of much more walking or much less eating.
 
Visitors scoff at the Santa Fe river, especially when it has the Gobi-desert-in-miniature look.  But even when the river is more or less running—in the spring, after a big rainstorm, when water is being released from the never-quite-full-enough reservoirs upstream, the scoffers aren’t impressed. “Santa Fe trickle?” they suggest, with a sneer.  “Santa Fe dribble?” 

How Much Water Is Necessary?

When is a river really really a river?  When it’s broad and deep and has a strong flow to it, unlike those poor relations dubbed streams and creeks?  When it can’t, safely, be waded across? Is it still a river when, intermittently, it’s reduced to a few stagnating pools?  Or when it masquerades as an arroyo, even as its invisible underground perennial seepage supports a verdant, jungly sort of bosque (think of the ultra-poetic English word ‘bosky’) that snakes across a landscape of sparse scrawny vegetation? 

When it's had as little recent connection with H2O as the supposed rivers on Mars?

Northern New Mexico has a few rivers that never occult themselves.  There’s the Chama flowing into O’Keefe country from Colorado, the quick-descending Nambe River transporting snowmelt from Santa Fe Baldy, the Rio en Medio with its charming waterfalls, the Pecos River descending from the Eastern side of the Sangre de Cristo mountains.  And, of course, there’s the Rio Grande which flows to the west of Santa Fe on its way to the Gulf of Mexico, performing for 1000 plus miles its task of dividing the U.S. from Mexico. 

None of these rivers can compete with the Mississippi or the Amazon or the Nile or the Rhine, or even the Ohio, but water is the stuff of life.  Wherever it appears, in whatever form, in whatever quantity, it’s cherished.  And so, the city of Santa Fe has, little by little, over the past few years, thumbed its nose at financial bad times and extended the Santa Fe River Trail. 

When I finally got around to checking out the new portion a few weeks ago, I was impressed by the amount and quality of the work that had gone into the project.  Shortly after, as usual at this time of year, the flow was turned off.  Just in time for tourists to peer into it and guffaw, “That’s a river?” 

Why does the river get turned off? 

Pure necessity.  Dams on the river impound water for non- spiritual, non-aesthetic needs.  If the reservoirs behind those dams aren’t full enough (and the other sources upon which the city depends are equally depleted), faucets won’t flow and toilets won’t flush. Good citizens hereabouts are vigilant year round water conservators, because they are denizens of the high desert. No one ever got rich farming this land.  Not the original peoples.  Not the Spanish colonials. Today New Mexico is one of the poorest states in the union.  

Insufficient rainfall is the culprit.  Even in the wettest years there’s not enough water to maintain Eastern-style green lawns, and the most conscientious limit the frequency and duration of their showers.  I’ll confess.  I’m good about the no-lawn regimen, but pretty profligate when it comes to showering during a hot spell.

Ducks and Little Girls

Although the watershed for the reservoirs in use today are off bounds to casual hikers, to protect our water supply, such as it is, anyone can walk atop the earthen remains of a late 19th century dam and see the marshy remnant of that reservoir (photo above), now home to a quackery of ducks and a colony of beavers, who are industriously at work on their own damming. 

  This a favorite place for local bird watchers, and  a mile-long path encircling the pond connects with Santa Fe’s extensive system of urban trails.  Santa Fe is a walker’s paradise, even for those who don’t fancy hiking at the higher altitudes.

The most delightful moment during my first morning on the new portion of the  Santa Fe River Trail was encountering a little girl splashing in a pool below a newly constructed rocky step down. Although the pool was not much larger than a couple of bath tubs,  to that little girl at that moment that little catchment of water was her own special place.  She flopped.  She splashed. I was tempted to shake off my sandals and wade in, but I settled for vicarious pleasure instead.  My intrusion would have destroyed her magic. 

Re-Creating a a Proper Bosque

By the time I managed to find time for another walk along the river, there was even less of it, water-wise, and the farther I walked downstream (so to speak) the drier it got. Toward the end of the new improved trail, the river bed was completely dry, which was good, actually, for me.  I could see the extent of the new stone work, the embankments to hold spring’s rush of snow melt, the placing of rock to manage the river’s descent toward the Rio Grande, the shapely channels for runoff from an occasional gullywasher of a rain storm. Without water, it was beautiful, like sculpture.  Also visible was the well-worn old path, ducking under a brand new footbridge, leading the more adventurous on toward the Rio Grande.

Unfortunately much of the newly improved mileage is shadeless and bleak.  Too many bulldozers have been at work.  However, once all the scrupulously re-introduced local vegetation takes hold and gets to thriving again in habitat from which it was displaced by ruthless alien species, the Trail will truly fulfill its ecological as well as its recreational promise.  No more salt cedar, for instance.  This giant weed has lovely plumes of delicate pink flowers, but it needs so much water that a stand of salt cedar can dry up a small stream.  Also mostly gone: the ubiquitous Chinese or Siberian elms that were imported in the 19th century and flourished because they require amazingly little water for their size.  To replace the interlopers: hundreds of cottonwoods and river willows. It may take ten years, but a new, wholly native bosque will eventually flourish here.

Meanwhile, back in the heart of Santa Fe, the river may gurgle and burble, or it may go dry, as it is right now, but if you're walking along the heavily-shaded stretch of river, you might very well be thinking, "Desert?  What desert?"

Europe's $1,000,000,000,000 game of chicken reaches tipping point

By: John C. Dyer, UK Correspondent

17 May 2012.

Darkness returns to Europe.

Greece and Germany play chicken with the future of the Euro. Greece rejects austerity. Germany threatens Greece’s membership in the club. But the estimated cost for such an exit approaches $1 Trillion. No one will escape being burned. 

It appears Europe’s long delayed Kobayashi Maru can no longer be put off.  The Greek electorate's rejection of austerity 6 May and Greece's subsequent inability to form a government in the face of fragmented power have forced the issue.   

Pundits who claim it was inevitable are wrong. Europe chose it.   

Europe tonight reaps the consequences of buying in to a “change the dial” public relations campaign to “rebrand” as “responsible finance” the extreme social order of social extremists.  The disabled in the UK once again eat gruel for Tea. Once prosperous Greeks sift garbage dumps for food.  The irresistable force of a people caught between the devil and the deep blue sea piles into the immovable object of Social Conservative will and mores.

Europe's leaders seem unable to grasp the necessity for a responsive change in strategy.  They remain locked in a concrete of their own manufacture. Today Prime Minister David Cameron firmly reaffirmed his commitment to austerity. He "just knows better." Yesterday Chancellor Merkel, while making accommodating noises about Greek growth, reaffirmed her demand for austerity. Germany's new "Iron lady" isn't for turning. 

Both positions have their partisans. Both positions are unable or unwilling to compromise.  

There was a time when we understood that controlled default is preferable to sustained insolvency and human degradation. No more in Europe. Europe's leaders see repayment of inflated debt to an unregulated finance sector that gambled wildly and unscrupulously as of greater “moral” priority than the food, shelter and health care needs of its indebted citizens.

Europe's leaders see the prospect of penetrating Chinese and Indian markets as more vital than rebuilding the general prosperity at home.  Europe's leaders scarcely seem to care any more whether the people believe their arguments that somehow they will rebuild the economy by reducing wages and benefits.  Europe's leaders "just know better."

The greatest single growing employment category in the UK is “part time self- employed.” That frequently translates broke.  Unpaid Internships “count” in the “employed” category. Nobody is fooled, but everyone calls the shift from full time well paid employment to part time occasionally paid employment or free internships as “good news.” 

In Europe they call this “competitiveness.” Some of us call it betrayal.    

Dialing down the rhetoric, it remains a Kobayashi Maru postponed but not defused by bailouts and engineering caretaker governments.   Rejected by the voter, even in Angela Merkel's home district, the clash between popular will and leadership seems to have reached tipping point.

The US would do well to take note.  

What happens in the US if the Euro collapses?  

I don't have a calculation. But consider, 46.2 million already live in poverty.  At least a quarter to as many as 40% (depending on whose estimate you believe) cannot afford to pay their medical bills.  

Beware the Tides of Greek Political Extremism

By Patricia H. Kushlis

Maybe Greece never should have become a member of the EURO-zone.  But it did.  Or maybe the EURO-zone should have been structured far differently so that it could deal with problematic states and regions such as Greece through transfers not loans. But this didn’t happen.

Maybe Greece’s political leaders should have behaved far more responsibly – immediately implementing at least major reforms that the Troika told them needed to be done two plus years ago to right the ailing economy. But they didn’t begin in earnest until a caretaker government took power November 11, 2011.  The domestic political and economic costs were simply too painful for either of the two mainstream parties that have dominated the country's politics for years.

Maybe the Troika and Germany should not have declared that the May 6 election was one that would determine whether Greece would stay in the EU, a claim also made by the two major Greek political parties that have alternated in power.  But it and they did.   

Maybe the exasperated Germans should not have come across as imperialist overlords to the Greek populace – perceptions are important in a country’s psyche – but that happened too.   That shrillness has resulted in untoward international consequences propelling what could and should have been contained as an internal EURO-zone dispute.

Instead the handling of the dispute has unsettled, once again, worldwide financial markets.  Yet Greece’s economy, after all, represents only 2.5% of the Euro-zone total and is dwarfed by all the others.     

And maybe the Greeks – and non-Greeks with capital in Greek banks should not be withdrawing their savings at a rate akin to a run on the banks.  An average of $5.1 billion dollars has been flowing out of Greece every month since 2009 when the debt crisis first broke and since the May 6 elections, Greeks have “pulled nearly $900 million in savings from their banks,” according to the May 17, New York Times.  

In whose interest is it?

But is it really in anyone’s interest – and this includes Germany, the rest of Europe and the US - for the country and its people to be treated the way they have been over the past two years and not expect untoward and dangerous political repercussions in the country?

Long Memories

Memories may be short elsewhere, but they’re not in Greece.  It’s not that history is doomed to repeat itself, hopefully people learn from history’s mistakes and don’t repeat them, but when the political center hollows out as has just happened the radical fringes rise to the fore.  Twentieth century Greek history, after all, alternated between democracy, right wing military coups and a nasty Civil War that followed a brutal Nazi occupation.

The Case of Chen the Party Crasher: Normal Diplomacy Meets Crisis Management

By Patricia Lee Sharpe

Traveling around the U.S. since I left the Foreign Service, I’ve been astonished by how little Americans  know about the rest of the world and how our representatives deal with it, which is to say, about diplomacy.  Sometimes, in despair about the deficiencies of U.S. education, I’ve found myself thinking, “No wonder Americans are so ready to go to war.  They’re barely aware of an alternative that saves money and lives.”  The Founders were savvier.  That’s why the Secretary of State ranks above the Secretary of War (now the Secretary of Defense) in the Cabinet hierarchy.

Wikileaks—does anyone even remember Wikileaks?—may have caused some harm and embarrassment (though much less than predicted), but the release of those classified documents should have proved to those who seldom have anything good to say about America’s diplomats that U.S. foreign service officers are excellent analysts and very good writers, too.

The Fly in the Ointment

In the past two weeks, even Americans who barely notice the headlines had another chance to observe how diplomacy works—and to watch two levels of diplomacy dramatically intersecting at that.  Just a few days before Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was due to arrive in China for the climax of an important bilateral dialogue a well-known Chinese human rights activist sought refuge in the U.S. embassy in Beijing.  If Chen Guangcheng were turned away, the Obama administration would be lambasted for abandoning America’s historic position of pressuring China to respect the civil liberties of its citizens.  If he were given refuge, China would protest and an important bilateral conference might go up in flames. 

And so a long-scheduled event collided with a totally out-of-the-blue crisis.   Diplomats need to be able to handle both, but they seldom have to do justice to both at the same time.  My impression is that the people at the U.S. embassy in Beijing did a pretty good, even impressive job of managing a difficult situation precipitated by an admirable, but impulsive, vacillating and conflicted petitioner.   

The Limits of Reform in China

Chen Guangcheng came to the world’s attention some years ago when he exposed corruption involving China’s one child policy.  Evidently he was never charged or tried for criminal activity, but vindictive, embarrassed local officials (no doubt with Beijing’s knowledge) had connived to solve their problem by building a very high wall around his house and keeping him under house arrest.  Chen escaped—an astonishing tale that has been well told elsewhere—and sought refuge in the American embassy, with the not-particularly-well-thought-out idea that he might be granted asylum in the U.S.   He himself might find refuge, but what would happen to his family and helpers if they were left behind, for instance?

When the U.S. opened its embassy doors to Chen, Chinese officialdom was furious.  During any big conference, the spotlight is on the backdrop as well as the stars.  Thanks to Chen, both China and the U.S. would be facing serious image problems instead of looking good at the conclusion of a successful event that was suddenly in danger of collapsing.

Electoral rejection of “the Narrative” tests Europe’s commitment to democracy

Electoral rejection of “the Narrative” tests Europe’s commitment to democracy

By John C. Dyer, UK Correspondent 

9 May 2012.  

Elections in the UK, France, and Greece 3 May and 6 May made clear, the voters have had “enough” of the prevailing “Narrative” undergirding “austerity” and “competitiveness.”

In the aftermath, the purveyors of the prevailing “Narrative” urgently sought a reset button. So clear was the electorates’ rejection of that narrative, so clear the demand for change, both Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor Angela Merkel felt compelled to say publicly and firmly neither would change course. Their rejection of what they themselves say they understand to have been the voter’s clear message opens a new and dangerous chapter in the story of Western democracy.  

France 

6 May the French electorate chose Socialist Francois Hollande over Conservative Nicholas Sarcozy, 52% to 48% with an 80% voter turn out.  Hollande promises to shift French focus from austerity to growth. He challenges Europe to deal with the banks. In his victory speech, Hollande spelled out the message to those who may have hoped his campaign posture had been “electioneering.”  In France the prevailing narrative had encountered a new narrative.  That narrative is, “Enough. Time to grow.”   

UK

3 May the UK electorate - those who voted - punished both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats at the polls.  The Liberal Democrat share of local government, its strongest connection with voters, fell to its lowest levels since the formation of the party.  Conservatives lost a substantial number of seats.  Of even greater long term significance to Britain’s democracy, turn out fell to just over 30% of those registered to vote.  In some places it was 8%.   That is 30% of  those who had been interested enough at one time to register and remain eligible to vote. 

The message of disaffection with the prevailing narrative is clear, however. All the major parties embrace austerity in some form. As Speaker Bercow said, the public perceive little difference between them.  The French on the other hand saw in Hollande a difference. That is the reason the same rejection of austerity saw an 80% French turn out but a 70% British turn off. 

Greece

6 May the Greek electorate threw out the governing coalition of the two most established Greek Parties.  As of 9 May the politicians appear impotent to establish a viable replacement coalition to run the country.  But pretty much all these many parties have in common is a rejection of austerity-tied bailouts as they now stand.   While critics wish to dismiss this as extremist anger, as of 8 May even the head of the Athens Chamber of Commerce called for renegotiation of Greece's bailout.

Wherever Greece may lead, whatever concessions Hollande may be able to negotiate from Merkel, it is clear that a significant percentage of voters across Europe have had enough of the prevailing narrative. The wave of reaction has now claimed France, the Netherlands, Greece and the UK electorate.  France, Greece and the Netherlands appear willing to embrace uncertainty rather than continuing surrender to Social Conservative imposition of austerity and competitiveness.   

Anxiety 

The markets initially reacted with jitters, a hiccup reported with a sense of forlorn worry by reporters.  How the markets would react was, indeed, the first and primary thing on reporters' minds.  Some reporters did not even attempt neutrality. Others did, but were unable to shake the narrative’s framework of “truths” and arguments even as they attempted neutral analysis.  They often appeared the proverbial deer in the headlights. 

Standing their ground

Not to worry, markets. Not to worry, media. Cameron and Merkel are "not for turning.”