By John C. Dyer, UK Correspondent
With all the bad news you’d think the tide would have turned against Prime Minister David Cameron’s Coalition government. At least politically, you’d be wrong. Pundits look for “break out issues,” but I suspect Cameron surfs with undercurrents well reckoned. Political change that is more than the choice between Wheaties and Frosted Flakes will require something more fundamental.
The news has certainly been bad. That is so well documented elsewhere it doesn’t require further from me.
The Coalition is running out of ideas as to who to blame. A promising new reason appears to be, the UK economy isn’t growing because ... drum roll please ... wait for it ... management has trouble firing the little guy. Really.
But with all that, the disgrace of his Communications master and his Defence Minister, a Tory back bench rebellion, you would still be wrong if you thought the Prime Minister was about to fall. It may come out of the blue and happen. Such things do. But the polls don’t show it.
The relative position of the parties in the polls has changed little since last winter. The 28 October 2011 YouGov/Sun poll shows “top line” voter shares for the 3 major parties Conservative 35%, Labour 42%, Liberal Democrat 9%. The average for months has hovered around 36/41/9. YouGov often describes this as an average 4-6 point Labour “lead” over the Conservatives.
But the categories cover over the more significant combinations. The combination of the shares of Conservative, UKIP (at 6%) and Liberal Democrat is 51% on average. UKIP is not a Coalition partner. But the only policy that distinguishes it from the Conservatives is UKIP wants to pull out of the EU 30 years ago.
The Right and the Left, both in Coalition and out, have itches they cannot scratch as to specific policy issues and political futures.
On the Right:
Were the rebellion of the Tory right to succeed, it would break the Coalition. The EU is a line in the sand for the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives would either need a new partner or to draw from others on the right. Such possibilities exist at least in theory with respect to constituencies represented by Conservatives and UKIP. These possibilities might yield 42-43% of the vote. Of course, votes could be lost also, but let’s assume not. The new right coalition would be around 42-43% tops.
The current Coalition represents 45%. When it first formed, the Coalition exceeded 50%, which any party or Coalition would have to garner to replicate to replace the current Coalition.
The Tory Right and UKIP have no effective place to go.
On the Left:
Labour’s dial has moved little since winter despite the dismal news. Some blame Labour’s geeky leader. Some blame the Party’s “branding” exercise, which I have described as “we are Frosted Flakes, not Wheaties” (because Labour essentially offers a sweeter glaze over a general direction that does not sell as all that different from that of the Coalition). But whatever the reason, it seems clear to me that if “break out issues” were going to do it, it would have happened by now.
Many pray Liberal Democrats will bolt the Coalition, and look desperately for the issue that will do it. Some thought it might be National Health Service (NHS) reform. But it was during the NHS reform debate I came to realize something I think very important about the leadership of the Liberal Democrats. They buy the view that “choice” and “competition” will be the catalyst of a better world for the common man. They also buy liberalized private “free markets” and “fair trade.”
These neo liberal views are the glue that binds the Coalition.
The Liberal Democrats would not be part of the Coalition leadership if their constituency did not share those views or was prepared to give leadership the benefit of the doubt. It is my hunch that unless and until the leadership sees their moderate constituents becoming disillusioned with the model, the Coalition is the Conservative Party’s right wing to lose (by miscounting noses or letting emotion cloud political judgment). That makes the status of the burning political question of the day . . . not yet.