By John C. Dyer, UK correspondent
On the eve of the Conservative Party conference that begins tonight in Manchester, Conservative MP Andrew Tyrie, Chair of the House of Commons Treasury Committee, launched a Scud at the governing Coalition’s lack of a “credible growth plan.” Reportedly Tyrie speaks for many in the back bench of the Conservative Party.
Also on the eve of the Party conference, The Guardian published an exposé of the sources of reportable contributions to the Conservative Party. The thrust is over half the contributions came from financial people in London.
One should take these stories with a healthy pinch of salt.
The Party's annual conference is the last of the 3 UK major party conferences. Their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats were the first, a little over 3 weeks ago. Labour just concluded their conference.
There is modest significance to Conferences most years. Generally exercises in back thumping for the party in power and chest beating for the party not. Party conferences are a bigger deal in the months preceding an election. The UK does not appear to be close. Without a sudden disintegration of the coalition the next big deal election is 2014.
However, we are in an era that breaks all the rules.
With the economy continuing to bump in the wrong direction both here and among the UK's major trading partners, things are touchy. The coalition has been under significant pressure to do a better job of defining a growth plan to get the economy moving.
Conservatives and business leaders argue for deregulation and tax cuts. Progressives argue for tax cuts for the ordinary bloke and slowing down austerity cuts. Few argue for Keynesian stimulus packages. Even when they use the term they tend to use it incorrectly to encompass tax cuts. But more often the term is avoided altogether. The word "stimulus" seems to have somehow acquired a negative connotation. I suspect demonstrating the power of repetition to trump evidence.
Within the packaging of Tyrie’s tirade on the coalition's lack of a credible growth policy (and wasting energy on green energy and other initiatives) is a core action proposal - tax cuts for the business sector - not at all in conflict with the Chancellor’s own view, perhaps reflected in the weak response of the man dispatched by Downing Street to handle the matter- Health Secretary Andrew Lansley.
One may be tempted to tie lack of a “credible” growth strategy to The Guardian’s revelations concerning Conservative contributions, pointing out that the Coalition’s policies protect finance and the City at the expense of growth. But Tyrie’s proposal does not hurt financiers. His tirade may well be best assessed as a “change the dial” PR campaign. If a classic change the dial campaign, Tyrie seeks to connect tax cuts in the public mind with the growing awareness in the country that austerity isn’t doing it and a growth plan is required.
Certainly, during a BBC interview concerning Tyrie’s comments, Conservative MP John Redwood folded Tyrie’s tirade into the “cut tax on business and 50p tax rate/ regulatory “reform” (ie, deregulation) that has characterized Conservative agendas for a generation.
No surprise revelations in The Guardian
As for The Guardian’s revelations, they are no surprise. They appear to me, rather, to be a classic pre convention hit piece, not unlike Conservative hit pieces concerning Labour’s finances featuring in Conservative leaning papers on the eve of the Labour convention the previous week.
The point of such releases prior to a convention is to buzz up the marginal agendas. It doesn’t really matter that, as pundits pointed out on BBC in their instant analysis of Tyrie’s comments, the Conservatives are not going to change course significantly. Nor does it matter that there may be a negative bite to some of the comments. The comments create buzz for a convention that otherwise would be a yawn. The buzz plays to the base.
Just as The Guardian’s buzz plays to progressives, the Tory buzz also gives Cameron ammunition in dealing with his coalition partners, who made growth and stimulus sounding mumblings during their convention (eventually settling for urging the Bank of England to engage in quantitative easing).
But hey, it makes for great theatre in the continuing soap. Pity some will invest in the blah blah sincere feelings of hope, fear, disappointment, and even betrayal.