By: Bill Stewart
The Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer a theocracy; it has become a military dictatorship. Iran was never a democracy, not even under the Shah. But much of its current institutional framework could be made to work as one. Parliament was freely elected, as was the presidency. The problem has been that there is an unelected religious framework that runs parallel to, around and through the elected secular institutions. In practice, it is this unelected body of mullahs and clerics who have the final say in all matters secular and religious.
At the top has been the Supreme Leader, chosen for life, who is thought to be - and sees himself - as God's spokesman and guardian of the principles of Shia Islam. In short, he plays the role of an all-powerful medieval pope, or an equally powerful medieval Caliph. He cannot be disobeyed. Just below him stands the 12-member Council of Guardians, which can veto any law and any candidate for parliament or the presidency. The Supreme Leader and the Guardians have played their respective roles with increasing abandon, convinced they are right because, in the name of God, they are doing God's work. We have our own examples in western history. Remember the Divine Right of Kings? In the long sweep of history, that was not so long ago. Even today, in matters of faith and morals, the pope is deemed to be infallible. The difference is that today, one does not get bloodied by the pope or his guardians for daring to disagree. That was not always the case.
So far, the Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the Guardian Council have solidly backed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the winner of the June 12 election. It is clear, however, that the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council had already decided before the election who would be the winner. All in God's name, of course. They know what is best for the people, and if there are some who don't agree, then the regime will crack heads and make them see. If blood flows, so be it. God's law must prevail.
Whatever the outcome of the current crisis, Iran will never be the same. The Supreme Leader has been openly defied and continues to be defied. The integrity, the will and the power of the Supreme Leader and the Council of Guardians have all been challenged. While the authorities may well take back control of the streets, they cannot take back the hearts and minds of millions of Iranians. All the king's horses and all the king's men, cannot put the regime back together again; Ahmadinejad will wear a hollow crown.
In the short and medium term, however, the situation is ominous. Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are in control of the nation's military and security services: the national police; the riot-control police; the mindlessly brutal Basij militia; the Revolutionary Guard and the regular army. Ahmadinejad, Khamenei and their close colleagues have carefully placed their own men in key control positions in all these organizations. They have yet to call out the Revolutionary Guard, but there is no doubt they would if they thought it necessary. Calling out the army is a different matter, as its loyalty to the regime is not as secure as the other military and semi-military outfits.
There is no doubt that the demonstrations can be put down by sheer force, and the government has the power to do so. More worrying for the regime, however, is the split among the clerical ranks, as many senior clerical leaders, even conservatives, have called the election into question as well as the regime's use of force. Mousavi is still openly defying the Supreme Leader, which puts Khamenei in a difficult position. It seems clear that neither Mousavi nor Ahmadinejad nor Khamenei ever expected the public outcry that has accompanied the election. Mousavi has become the leader of the opposition almost by default. It is his wife, the popular Zahra Rahnavard, who is more out in front defying the government.
In the short term, it is difficult to see how the demonstrators can win. But in the long term, it is equally difficult to see how the government can survive. The fault lines of the regime are clearly visible, and they get deeper day by day; the die has been cast.