By Patricia H. Kushlis
On June 4, 2009 President Barack Obama is slated to address the Islamic world from Cairo. The contours of that speech are likely to be being discussed, debated, written and rewritten as I post this even though the final draft is unlikely to have yet approached the finish line.
The speech should set the course this administration hopes to take in its dealings with the some 1.3 billion or more Muslims many of whom live - like the Egyptians - in countries that straddle the equator.
Certain individuals – particularly western human rights firsters – have criticized the administration for choosing Cairo as the location for the speech. They point to Hosni Mubarak’s authoritarian regime in power since 1981 and its suppression of the political opposition arguing that Obama’s speech would better be delivered from Turkey or Indonesia, two moderate Sunni majority nations with multi-party democratic governments. Or even Malaysia, Indonesia’s neighbor to the northeast.
Why Cairo? A smart but daring choice
I think Egypt, however, was chosen for reasons that have much to do with the country’s preeminent historical position in Sunni Islamic thought as well as the country’s traditional leadership in the Arab world. Perhaps consideration was also given to the fact that the Egyptians were the first to bring hostilities to a close with Israel by recognizing Israel’s right to exist. This happened through the historic Camp David Agreements presided over by then President Jimmy Carter in 1978. That agreement changed the power balance in the Middle East by taking the most powerful Arab army out of any invasion equation.
Not only does 25% of Egypt’s population live in Cairo but it is also the country’s capital and the location of Al-Azhar University, the theological and legal home for much of moderate Sunni Islam. This is where many important religious ideas are formulated and where significant Sunni clerics study, teach and preach. The government keeps a lid on both.
Cairo is also an important Arabic media base. A well-covered speech in Cairo radiates far beyond the banks of the Nile, the tombs of the Pharaohs and the city cemetery’s infamous slums. According to The New York Times, the speech itself is likely to be delivered at Cairo University, a “landmark occupying a large gated area in Giza, part of greater Cairo and . . . an important institution that once helped to elevate modern Egypt to the center of Arab learning.”
Yet, Egypt has also been the incubator of radical Muslim thought. The demands and world views of the radicals – some militant and some not - and their followers tend, in my view, to be closely associated with the weaknesses of Egyptian politics, its leaders, the treatment of the ordinary people and the country’s lengthy history: the myriad of day-to-day problems generated out of centuries of colonial and quasi-colonial rule topped by gross mismanagement by Egypt’s own leaders from the right and the left.
That radical, anti-regime Islamic thinkers (and doers) intertwine their views of Islam with national and personal aspirations should come as little surprise. There have never been clear lines among the three. Islam is by no means the only religion to make these interconnections.
How Arabs View the US and President Obama: the latest poll
On May 19, George Washington University professor Marc Lynch reported the release of a new Zogby/Telhami poll about Arab attitudes towards the US. The press conference announcing the release took place at Brookings. According to Lynch the most important findings were:
“1) Iraq matters; 2) Obama is personally popular but deep skepticism remains about US policy; 3) Iran is losing ground but still not seen as much of a threat; and 4) Palestinians should form a unity government.”
Adding a few details, Lynch noted that positive views of the US increased from 15-18% but at least the “unfavorable” dropped from 64 to 46%. Only 3% expressed “a lot of confidence in the US and 66% none.” But simultaneously 45% expressed positive views of Obama – and 60% expressed positive views of him if the Egyptian sample is excluded – while only 24% expressed negative views (15% excluding Egypt.)
Here’s a link to the survey summary itself.
As Obama and those involved in writing his upcoming speech undoubtedly realize, the US needs to take into consideration the views of the Arab street as well as those of Arab rulers far more so than in the past. So the results of this poll are doubly important to the administration in its run-up to June 4.
The strengths and weaknesses of charisma
It seems to me that the personal popularity of any leader is certainly an element in helping gain public support for a country and its policies abroad. But an individual’s charisma can only go so far. If the country’s policies are antithetical to those on the receiving end, then even the most persuasive leader cannot expect to breach the gap for long.
We are fortunate to have a president who is personally popular abroad as well as at home. It’s a breath of fresh air that should have happened years ago. At least it should provide some breathing space for this government to restore its frayed underpinnings. That’s the real challenge. The US cannot deal with the world only through the sites of a gun: the previous administration proved that approach a lie. The military is, and has been overstretched for years. Regardless, it should always be kept as a last, not used as a first, resort.
But the civilian foreign affairs bureaucracy has been decimated – in particular in terms of public diplomacy and foreign aid. These will take considerable time, money and effort to rebuild. The administration and the Congress are taking the first baby steps to do so – especially in the development field - but will they be enough and in time? And what about public diplomacy and restoring this country's image abroad?