by Cheryl Rofer
As the Arctic ice melts, there will be a competition for resources and shipping lanes. Attempts are in progress to work out these issues through international conferences. Some of this is complicated by the fact that all the nations bordering the Arctic Sea, except the United States, are members of the Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Last week Russia announced that it plans to create a military force to patrol the Arctic. This comes after encroachment by Russian military planes on Canada's airspace.
The planning document was released on the heels of President Obama's release of his Afghanistan strategy; this may indicate an attempt to "win the news cycle." Russia has been concerned with the activity in Afghanistan and would like to play a bigger role there. Lacking that, maybe yet another claim on the Arctic would get attention. Moscow is reacting to NATO as well, one of its current sensitivities.
Russia has been announcing many plans lately. Patrolling the Arctic. Missiles in Kaliningrad. Modernization of its nuclear forces.
Announcing plans is a cheap and easy way to get attention on the world stage, particularly if you can bring extension of military might and nuclear weapons into the mix. But we have to wonder how likely it is that the plans will be carried out.
Russia has been hit hard by a one-two punch of lowered oil prices and the world financial convulsions. Eric Martin observes that military plans are particularly expensive and cites a report that Russia may be pulling out of Chechnya.
Paul Goble points out that the plans will affect the people living closest to the Arctic Ocean in Russia. Most of these people are not ethnic Russians, and they will not be pleased with the additional controls that will go with the militarization of the Arctic Ocean. We don't hear much about ethnic unrest in Russia, but it is a continuing theme that keeps the Kremlin worrying about further breakups of their extremely multiethnic state. If you want to follow this issue, Paul's blog is a good way to do it.
Perhaps the funding for Chechnya can be redirected toward the Arctic or Kaliningrad, although it seems unlikely to be adequate for all Russia's plans. It seems likely that the plans are negotiating positions.
Should be an interesting conversation when President Obama meets with President Medvedev this week.