The Continuing Saga

by Cheryl Rofer

One of the problems with the MSM’s news coverage is that stories are too often reported a bit at a time and not pulled together. So you may have the feeling (I know that I sometimes do) that you’ve heard something earlier but not recall the entire story. Or sometimes you may wonder if you’re having a bout of déjà vu.

So let me go back to late January. General Petraeus was flying around Central Asia trying to develop alternative supply lines for NATO in Afghanistan. He seemed to have cobbled something together. But then the supply lines through Pakistan were hit again by the Taliban, and Kyrgyzstan, during one of its leadership’s multiple trips to Moscow, announced that the US would have to leave the Manas airbase. I think there was another round of assurances from Dmitry Medvedev that Russia was willing to cooperate with NATO on non-military supplies, but I’m losing track. I didn’t post those developments, because I suspected there would be more.

And so there is. It now seems that, safely back in Bishkek, Kyrgyz officials have decided that they will hold their decision until Moscow comes up with the money that has been promised, or perhaps until Moscow and the US come to some sort of agreement. And Moscow is willing to consider supply lines, including military supplies, through Russia.

That’s the latest news, very much like the news you’ve been hearing for the last couple of weeks. When each development is reported independently, it’s hard to make sense of it.

So what is going on? The United States and NATO have a real problem with supply lines to Afghanistan. This needs to be thought out, which is undoubtedly part of why President Obama has ordered a review of the situation there. Russia is not pleased with the US presence in Central Asia and is letting President Obama know about that. Calling heads of state to Moscow was a common practice under the Soviet Union. The intimidation factor then was greater than it is now, but arms can still be twisted. Kyrgyzstan is playing Russia and the US against each other, to maximize its profit from Manas air base and to keep either one from exercising undue influence. Gregory Gleason suggests that although the decision nominally belongs to the Kyrgyz parliament, it is in fact up to President Kurmanbek Bakiev, who is responding to internal pressures.

Let’s parse some of those news stories a bit more carefully, considering that translation and the media sometimes introduce mistakes and inaccuracies.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia may expand cooperation in shipments of NATO supplies bound for international forces in Afghanistan.

Lavrov told reporters in Moscow Wednesday such cooperation will be possible when Russia and NATO fully normalize ties.

“Fully normalize ties.” Russia wants something new in its relationship with NATO. We can hope that US officials are getting the details on what that is.

Meanwhile, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Patrick Moon has concluded two days of talks in Moscow with Russian officials on supply routes to Afghanistan where U.S. and NATO forces are battling the Taliban movement. A U.S. Embassy statement said the sides agreed to continue future consultations.

So it’s not just Petraeus and the military in Central Asia who are negotiating.

That’s Voice of America’s take. Here’s AP’s, which reads a bit differently, but with the same bottom line. AFP quotes more from Lavrov.

"Additional steps are also possible. In April-May last year we discussed with NATO colleagues agreement on using Russian military aviation for sending supplies for the International Security Assistance Force" in Afghanistan, said Lavrov.

"What's important is that relations between Russia and NATO return to a normal course," he said, referring to Western condemnation of Russia's military thrust into Georgia last year.

"Relations need to be repaired and we're ready for that but normalising them is possible only by returning to the source, to the principles" of the founding documents of the NATO-Russia Council, a consultative body, he said.

"There it's written very clearly that we participate in the Russia-NATO Council on a national basis and not on a 26-versus-one basis or 26-plus-one, but as 27 members, and that we respect the principles of the indivisibility of security -- that the security of one cannot be secured at the expense of another," he said.

And yet more from Reuters:

"Non-military transit has already been granted as part of our agreements with NATO and the United States very recently received our agreement ... for delivery of their cargoes for the needs of the international forces," Lavrov said.

“Has already been granted.” So reports were wrong, or the officials being quoted that there was no transit were wrong, or perhaps someone was confused. I know I’ve seen quotes that transit had not been granted for military equipment cited as evidence that Russia had refused all transit.

Bottom line: The US will be staying in Kyrgyzstan’s Manas airbase for a while, and negotiations with Russia on a land route for supplying Afghanistan are moving forward, now apparently including military as well as non-military supplies. But we haven’t heard the last of this.

Map from BBC.