by Cheryl Rofer
With Mohammed Khatami challenging him in June’s presidential election, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran today offered President Barack Obama “talks based on mutual respect and in a fair atmosphere.”
Iran is celebrating the thirtieth anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, which resulted in the taking of the American Embassy in Tehran, which resulted in the break in relations between the two countries that persists to today.
Khatami was attacked by a crowd during the celebrations as being the American candidate. This may have emboldened Ahmadinejad, or the attack may have been incited by Ahmadinejad’s people, or neither of those.
Only a few days ago, Ahmadinejad was demanding apologies and more from the United States. Obama responded with calm words, and now Ahmadinejad is proposing talks, using some of Obama’s words.
Meanwhile, Israel has voted. Early returns appear to show a small lead for Tzipi Livni’s Kadima Party over Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud. However, third place goes to Avigdor Lieberman, whom Ha’aretz termed a racist. Both front-runners are claiming victory; the government will be formed through time-consuming negotiations and could very well wind up with the hawks in power.
Israel has been rattling sabers, all the way up to nuclear, against Iran. A hawkish government will make negotiations between the US and Iran all the more difficult. Netanyahu has said that Iran is a greater danger to the world than the economic crisis. Israel, of course, has the means to, er, save us all from that, and Obama will have to keep them from using those means.
Russia would also have an interest in negotiations between the US and Iran. Russia has offered its services for nuclear fuel manufacture in place of Iran’s enrichment, and both have interests in the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus.
Obama says he intends to deal with problems regionally. Such an approach would bring in those two players and more; additionally, matters in Iraq are of concern to Iran and the other neighbors. And, of course, there are the European nations that George Bush used as his proxies to negotiate with Iran.
The immediate questions for the Obama administration are whether and how to begin talks with an Iranian president who may not remain in office more than a few months and what Israel’s next government may look like. Russia has made a number of moves lately that must be considered as well, including edging the US out of the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan with a large monetary offer out of their shrinking economy.
It’s all connected, and I’m about to move into Afghanistan supply lines, which are not unconnected to our relations with Iran (not to mention the instability in Afghanistan), but I think I’ll leave that and more about relations with Russia for another post.
Obama’s statements about Iran have kept the possibility of talks on many subjects open, so all of this and more may be on the agenda. But there will be a preliminary phase before we see much of substance.