By Patricia H. Kushlis
New Mexico is one of the most politicized states in the country: Elections are especially fun here where tales of past electoral fraud and cliff-hanger results regale uninitiated and veterans alike and where even University of New Mexico political scientists who specialize in that sort of thing suddenly assume almost media celebrity status at home and abroad.
Besides, this state is one of the thirty five with early as well as absentee voting so I thought I’d explore where things stood from the banks of the middle Rio Grande in the Land of Enchantment just two days before the polls open November 4, 2008.
Swing and Bellwether
This is a swing and bellwether state with a tradition of voting for the winner of the national popular vote. The only time New Mexico failed to vote for the “winning” presidential candidate in nearly a century was Elections 2000 when the voters supported Gore by 366 votes in a cliff-hanger election – but you know all too well the finale that year. I personally consider New Mexico to have a solid 100 percent record of picking the real winner despite what anyone might claim otherwise – because, lets face it, the popular vote went for Gore and W won the election only because of scuzzy political shenanigans in Florida where his brother just happened to be Governor and a conservative U.S. Supreme Court that should have kept its opinion to itself.
The Big If . . .
Regardless, this state’s five electoral votes also help determine the outcome of a close race. This is why we get an inordinate amount of national political and media attention in the days, months and hours leading up to the Big Event.
One recent scenario has McCain winning the presidency without Pennsylvania if he carries Colorado and New Mexico. That’s a big if – and if he’s counting on New Mexico for that extra edge – I think he and his strategists are living in la-la land. The elections site FiveThirtyEight (see map above) has New Mexico in dark blue now – although RealClearPolitics’ colorists seemingly haven’t figured that one out yet – which makes me wonder why that website isn’t as up-to-date as it wants us to believe – or what else am I missing?
Meanwhile, the polls even including those listed on RCP all indicate that Obama is leading in both of these Rocky Mountain States but that his lead in New Mexico – between seven and 17% depending on who’s counting - is larger than in Colorado.
Bits of Anecdotal Evidence
From what I’ve observed moseying around Albuquerque this past couple of weeks - from the university campus to women’s clothing stores to the local mortuary, to the lady who does alterations for me - the polls have hit the nail on the head. The crossovers this time around are more likely to be Republicans and Independents lining up behind the Dems at far greater rates than in previous elections. Oh, forget about the small party vote - this time minority party registration is less than inconsequential.
The Obama rally a week ago last Saturday evening at the University of New Mexico drew 35,000 enthusiasts to Johnson Field and another 10,000 along Central Avenue, the main street next to the campus. In contrast the McCain rally on the State Fair Grounds that morning attracted a paltry 1,000 (or perhaps less) Republican diehards with The Albuquerque Journal reporting a total of 3,000 tickets available.
This is the one period in the political cycle that our political elites have to pay attention to those of us ordinary folk out here on the trail. As a trainer from the County Clerk’s Office said (I’ll be working as a precinct clerk Election Day), this is the one time in our democracy when the power is placed in the people’s hands.
Slow as molasses count?
New Mexico, however, is traditionally slow to count and report the outcome. This happened in 2000 primarily because of an incompetent Bernalillo County Clerk and inadequately trained Elections Supervisor in the state’s most populated county. Add in for good measure poor, or non-existent computer skills among too many elections’ office staff that demonstrated their worst for Elections 2000. Even so, traditionally, election night reporters need to arrive at the clerk’s office well supplied and fortified for a very long night indeed: Blankets, pillows, sleeping bags, coffee and donuts needed in tow.
The Bernalillo County Clerk’s Office has vastly improved in efficiency and reliability since 2000 because the county has begun to elect competent clerks. The voting machines are ES&S Optiscan – which mean that there can be a paper ballot recount if need be, the number of precinct clerks have been almost doubled for this record-breaking election and there is a reserve supply of trained precinct judges on hand to fill in for any no-shows.
From what I also understand, Bernalillo is the only county in New Mexico that has up-to-date elections statistics on its website right now. It did not, however, keep the election night reporting up-to-date during the June primary so be prepared: who knows what will happen Tuesday night.
The good news is that the entire state’s 2008 registration statistics are also on the Bernalillo County Clerk’s page. The site also includes the number of absentee ballots returned and early votes registered for Bernalillo County voters as of Thursday, October 30.
When I checked the figures yesterday, I also discovered that my own Absentee Ballot had arrived and had been registered at the Clerk’s Office in mid-October. Hurray! It didn’t get lost somewhere along the way after all.
In the past, Republican candidates have received a larger margin of absentee votes – which because of previous election laws – wouldn’t get tabulated and reported until the wee-hours of the morning after or worse - not at all.
Those laws have, however, recently changed. The processing of absentee ballots began Friday with observers from both major parties present at all times. This means that the county and the state should be able to report the results in a timely manner. Keep your fingers crossed.
In 2000, it took more than a month to untangle the elections mess here in river city on the Rio Grande. This embarrassing fiasco even made the front page of The Wall Street Journal on December 15, 2000. The WSJ report – the best after-action analysis I read - even reported the story of the ballot box that had been lost – then found days later – in a warehouse by a Republican Party official but its contents were overruled by a copying mistake made in heavily Democratic Don Ana County. Both the then Republican County Clerk in Bernalillo County who already had a reputation for never finishing the count and her elections supervisor soon thereafter headed for the exit.
Now I didn’t find statistics for the other 32 New Mexico counties on the web – but Bernalillo County accounts for over 33 percent of the state’s registered voters this year so its figures alone are worth examining: 48 percent are registered Democrats and 32 percent Republicans. The remainder refused to declare affiliation or belong to an assortment of tiny parties.
Shifting Metrics
This time the metrics have shifted as a result of the importance of this watershed election and the Obama Campaign’s Registration and Early and Absentee Vote drives. For elections 2004, there were 250,734 votes cast in Bernalillo County of which 59,891 (23% of the total) were Absentee and 81,201 (32%) were Early.
This year, the Clerk’s Office predicts that 75 percent of the 393,061 registered voters will vote although the Secretary of State who was the previous County Clerk here estimates as high as 80 percent. This would mean a total of between 275,143 to 314,448 votes so at least 25,000 more voters are expected than in 2004. This number alone trumps the total registration for each of 18 other counties in the state.
As of October 30, 2008, 41 percent of all registered Bernalillo County voters had already voted. Early Voting ended this Saturday. This translates into anywhere between 51 and 59 percent of likely voters have already done so. Of these, the Democrats exceed the Republicans not only in registration (48-32 percent), but also in terms of Early and Absentee voting (53% versus 32.9%) – especially Early Voting.
The ratio of Dems to Reeps voting in these two categories was closer for Elections 2004.
John Kerry carried Bernalillo County by 52.26% but lost the state by some 6,000 votes. If, however, Obama carries Bernalillo County by a larger margin than Kerry did and the other counties remain the same as in 2004, the Democrats will win New Mexico’s five electoral votes thereby kicking high desert sand in the face of a McCain presidential bid. His route to the White House will not, repeat not, therefore go through New Mexico.
There do remain, however, a couple of unknowns which must warm the hearts of the McCain campaign folk: first, whether swing state and independent minded New Mexicans will, in fact, vote the party of their registration and second whether the youth and the sizable Hispanic community here will vote at all.
My sense is that university students are voting. The Early Vote site on the UNM campus has seen a swarm of activity ever since it opened in early October. The students are reportedly voting heavily for Obama and they, in fact, account for a substantial number of early voters as well as Obama foot soldiers who have been doing what all good community organizers do – going door to door to drum up support for their candidate or cause.
I also have good reason to believe that New Mexico's Hispanics who are registered Democrats will not desert the party this year – but what is unclear to me is how heavy their turnout will be.
McCain’s final fling
So stay tuned. Rumors are flying that McCain may make one last stopover in New Mexico on Monday – likely in the south - as a part of his seven states in seven hours last ditch marathon – but I’d be amazed if at this late hour it will change the outcome. This time – I predict - New Mexico is going blue and will yet again vote for the winner. It’s almost all over but the counting.
Recommended reading: The Population Reference Bureau has come out with a special US Elections 2008 report by Kelvin Pollard entitled “Swing, Bellwether, and Red and Blue States: Demographics and the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election.”
Map Credit: FiveThirtyEight.com.