by Bill Stewart
Liberals may wail, but in the political spectrum, the US traditionally is a center, center-right country. Simply put, we are more conservative than liberal.
Since Abraham Lincoln was elected in 1860 as the first Republican president of the United States, the country has had 26 presidents. In the space of 143 years since Lincoln’s assassination in 1865, only nine Democrats have been elected to that office. The others have all been Republicans. Historically, the Republicans have had a remarkable run.
It is also true, however, that in times of economic stress, the country moves back to center-left. In times of economic crisis, such as the Great Depression of the 1930s, the country has moved definitely to the left. Franklin Roosevelt was elected four times, and decisively changed the political, social and economic face of America. We still live amid the ideals, aspirations and institutions of Roosevelt’s New Deal, though many Americans may not be aware of it. Nor do many Americans remember how so much of the country at the time thought that Roosevelt had saved the nation. Others, especially Republicans, thought that Roosevelt was “a traitor to his class.”
It is clear that we are, at the moment, in a time of economic stress, so the electorate is moving left. The current financial crisis has only accelerated this trend, hence the marked move towards Sen Barack Obama and the Democrats. The failing economy has hit Sen John McCain and his campaign like an avalanche, and try as he might he has not been able to do much about it. This would be true of any Republican candidate because fairly or unfairly, the party in the White House takes the blame. Much could happen in the next three weeks, of course, and Democrats need to remember that McCain is at his best when the situation is at its worst. He can still make a comeback, despite his falling poll numbers (remember that his campaign imploded last year, and yet he came back to be the nominee; truly remarkable). But if the current situation remains the same, Sen Barack Obama is set to be the next president of the United States.
In my view, Obama is the man for our times. First, as an African-American of mixed parentage, he appeals to both blacks and whites, transcending color in a way that is genuinely historic. It is true we don’t know how many people will not vote for him simply BECAUSE he is an African-American. The figure may be significant, but I doubt decisive. We are a different and better country than we were during the civil rights struggle of the 1960s. We may not be all the way home, but we know that we are homeward bound. The Obama candidacy is our best evidence.
Secondly, not only is Obama intelligent, but he has the right temperament to be president. Throughout the three debates he remained unflappable and on target, refusing to rise to the bait of attacks on his character and judgment. He simply looked and acted presidential. Obama is also a shrewd politician, and he can be deftly evasive. He was so in the last debate on specifics relating to his proposals on the economy. But then Roosevelt really didn’t know how to end the Depression. No one did, and it didn’t end until World War 11. But Roosevelt recognized the need to inspire confidence in a nation that had lost confidence in itself. Obama seems to have the same instincts, and that can only stand us in good stead.
John McCain, on the other hand, seems to have lost his way, trying what appears to be one desperate tactic after another. Though his third debate performance was by far his best, he still lost. He did not have a consistent theme, moving from the economy to William Ayers, the domestic terrorist turned professor, demanding to know the extent of his relationship with Obama. It may be too late to find the consistency that he has not yet found. Though he said in the first debate that Obama didn’t know the difference between strategy and tactics, it appears that it is McCain who doesn’t know the difference. Tactically, his selection of Gov Sarah Palin as his running mate was a success; strategically it may well have been a mistake as her campaign performance so far has failed to improve the numbers. Similarly, his rush to Washington to “take charge” of the White House “bail-out” plan and to postpone the first debate was a split-second tactical decision. It turned out to be a strategic error. It failed, and he looked both foolish and frantic. McCain is a fighter pilot, brave and daring. But that’s not what we want or need in the White House. Tactics are useful but strategy is essential.
On the other hand, Barack Obama, criticized at first for being too laid-back, seems at last to be coming into his own. Steady as she goes seems to be his style, and at this point, he seems homeward bound.