By Patricia H. Kushlis
This is the most bizarre American election that I’ve ever witnessed – and I’ve watched a lot of them from here and abroad – including Elections 2000 from the 93rd floor of the World Trade Center, Tower II, as New Mexico State Manager for Voter News Service which was unjustly and erroneously blamed for miscalling Florida. Please believe me, VNS did not miscall Florida: the crooked elections that took place under Jeb Bush’s watch as Governor of Florida were the real miscreants – but that’s another story. In any event, the bizarreness of that election only started to come to light very late election night – then events spun out of control.
What I’m referring to this time around, however, has two separate aspects: 1) John McCain’s increasing reliance on throwing what the media has come to call “Hail Mary Passes” and 2) my belief that opinion polls are becoming less and less able to assess voter opinion accurately.
• John McCain’s all too frequent “Hail Mary Passes”
First came McCain’s last minute, ill-considered selection of the grossly incompetent Sarah Palin as his running mate – unless, of course, one considers that anyone who meets the bare minimum Constitutional requirements for assuming office by being at least 35 years old and a native born American is competent, not just minimally qualified, to stand a heart-beat away from the Oval Office.
Second McCain’s strange behavior this past week – as the polls started to sink in the “wrong direction” – by blowing off a scheduled interview with David Letterman on the Tonight Show and lying about it and then topping that off with an off-again – on-at-the-last-minute-again approach to the first presidential debate. How many more “Hail Mary Passes” will McCain throw between now and November 4 and how long will the American public allow him to do so before this little boy’s cries of “wolf, wolf” turn into liabilities?
• Opinion polling problems
Another wildcard in the deck, however, is of a very different kind, namely the ability of the polling organizations to track the American electorate’s views accurately.
I question whether any polling organization is truly capable of reporting public opinion anywhere near as accurately as before the days of cell phones and early vote. The problem, of course, is that more and more Americans are dumping telephone landlines – most pollsters’ data life lines – for cell phones and cable for connecting with the outside world. The problem for pollsters is that it’s impossible to collect data from cell phone only voters.
Then there’s the other wildcard that the polling organizations have not taken into enough consideration, namely the effects of early vote on election predictions. In years past – before early vote (EV) became a major factor, Election Day exit polls which – I might add were conducted by VNS (now taken over by AP) - were considered amazingly accurate. They were important factors in the predictions made by the major networks elections night.
But here’s the dilemma: more and more people are voting early – but where are the exit pollsters at representative Early Vote sites? And if not, is there a formula that will adequately reflect these voters’ votes?
So hold onto your hats. This wild election ride is likely to continue: McCain will probably continue his erratic behavior in increasingly desperate attempts to throw the well organized Obama campaign off-guard and too many polls should be taken with a grain of salt.