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American Physical Society First Debate Reaction

by Cheryl Rofer

The American Physical Society asked me to provide my reaction to science topics (or lack thereof) in the first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama. Here it is.

NPT Endgame

by Cheryl Rofer

Endgame strategy is different from openings or midgame. That's something that hasn't been recognized now for some time with regard to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The Bushian propensity for bombast and unilateralism has obscured this, along with just plain bad judgment and overprotectiveness of the defense industry.

But they're not the only ones who haven't recognized the endgame. The nonproliferation community is just as blind in its own way. Here's today's sample from Graham Allison and Ernesto Zedillo. They recommend strengthening the IAEA so that it can take bold steps. Well, yes. Those are the recommendations of a commission that the authors served on. Perfectly valid, salutary. But what are those bold steps that are needed?

Opening and Midgame

Ireland proposed a nonproliferation treaty in the 1960s. By 1970, enough signatories had been collected that the treaty came into force. That included only 43 countries. Various sorts of arm-twisting and horse-trading, some as difficult as reconciling Brazil and Argentina to each other and persuading South Africa to give up its small arsenal, continued until the mid-nineties, when the vast majority of states had signed on.

There remain three states that have nuclear weapons and have not signed the treaty: India, Israel and Pakistan. North Korea has withdrawn from the treaty and is currently recalcitrant in the talks to draw it back in.

For those four, the NPT offers only non-nuclear-weapon status: only states that tested nuclear weapons before 1964 can join as nuclear-weapon states. North Korea is early enough in its development of nuclear weapons that it is conceivable it can be turned away from nuclear weapon status. The others will not give up their nuclear arsenals any time soon.

Bush takes on the endgame

Tuesday Chamisa Blogging

by Cheryl Rofer

A few months back, I showed you my very pruned chamisa bushes. I never did get around to the other big ones I wanted to try to tame; maybe next year. They're all blooming now, that brilliant gold color that lasts only for a week or so. There are supposed to be a couple of cold fronts headed toward us for the end of the week, so that will probably be when they dry out. These three photos are in the same order as I showed the bushes after they had been pruned and grown out a bit.

I thought that this past weekend I could clean the hummingbird feeders and put them away, but as I refilled them last night, one hummingbird was wistfully checking out the position one feeder is usually in, and this morning, as I photographed the chamisa, two were still fighting out whose territory it was, and I think there may have been a third.

It's the young ones, or perhaps the females, that stay behind. It's very difficult to tell them apart. The mature males were tanking up for the long haul at least a month ago and are long gone. What I keep wondering is if it's the immatures that leave last, how do they know where to fly?

When the chamisa blooms, people claim it causes their allergies. It's certainly obviously in bloom, and there are great fields of it. I must have eight or ten large plants like these and any number of smaller ones in my yard. I did get around to pruning some of the smaller ones so that maybe I'll head off their being too sprawly.

But there are many things blooming at this time of year, their last gasp to produce seeds. Here's the best writeup I can find on chamisa, Ericameria nauseosa; not as good as some I've found for other plants. Nauseosa, yes. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: chamisa scent is like something you have to scrape off your shoe, with a too-sweet addition. Here's another version, probably from a New Yorker who has spent all of five minutes in Santa Fe, not at all close to a chamisa bush in bloom, impressed by our mountains and views and chamisa's vivid yellow.

I don't think that chamisa contributes much to fall allergies, unless you bury your face in that yellow. Chamisa is in the sunflower and aster family, Compositae. Dust your fingers across the blooms and they'll pick up the heavy yellow pollen that needs to be moved by pollinators like the painted lady butterflies (too shy for photos) that were dancing around those plants this morning. Allergies need light, wind-scattered pollen like that from hairy bursage, of which I still have too much in my yard. Anything with conspicuous flowers in unlikely to cause allergy. The flowers are conspicuous to attract the pollinators needed to move that heavy pollen.

The Way of the World

by Cheryl Rofer

John McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican Convention reminded me of how I dislike the political trope “I’ll fight for you!”

The first time I recall being irritated by it was in Bill Richardson’s campaign to represent New Mexico’s northern congressional district. “Bill Richardson – Fighter for the North” said the red, yellow and black bumperstickers. I winced every time I saw one.

John Kerry and John Edwards both took up the trope, less successfully than Richardson. And now John McCain wants us to “fight with him,” which whipped up the Republican crowd to a fighting frenzy.

McCain has used the word fight less since then, but his pugnacious tone continues. The mavericks, we are to believe, will throw the bums out and we know they will do that because they have fought their own party and prevailed. We may ask why they belong to a party that needs to be fought against, but I’ll save that for another post.

Why I don’t like it

Fighting is not a behavior I prefer in politicians who represent me. I would prefer them to understand the problems and find solutions, while respecting the Constitution and the voters who put them into office.

Former US Diplomats support Obama – a letter to the editor of THE NEW MEXICAN

By Guest Contributor Ret. Ambassador Peter Sebastian

The following letter to the editor appeared as a commentary in The New Mexican on September 7, 2008. Ambassador Sebastian has given WhirledView permission to republish the letter as submitted. WhirledView has recently learned that more than 300 former career diplomats have now signed the declaration in support of Senator Obama’s candidacy for president. The number of signers continues to rise.

As a Santa Fe resident and subscriber to THE NEW MEXICAN conversant with its editorial positions, I believe you agree that the next Administration will have, as one of its most urgent tasks, the reestablishment of Washington's international credibility.

This task has emerged as a major theme in the presidential campaign as a result of what many Americans, myself included, believe to have been the abandonment by the current Administration of the principles of bipartisanship at home and close coordination with allies abroad. These are principles which I was proud to serve during a professional lifetime in the US Foreign Service, and in which I continue to believe.

I have, therefore, joined with more than 250 former career diplomats with long experience in the conduct of US foreign relations under both Republican and Democratic Administrations, in a call to fellow American voters, regardless of political affiliation, to join in supporting Senator Obama. We believe that he has the vision and the will to restore the respect and leadership we once enjoyed, will work to restore bipartisanship at home and embrace foreign policies which better serve the interests of the country.

I enclose a copy of a declaration scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 19, 2008 in Washington, DC. together with a list of its signers. Given the number of signers, it probably exceeds the space normally available to "Letters." I none-the-less hope that THE NEW MEXICAN will see fit to publicize it in whatever form it deems appropriate.

I thank you for your consideration of the foregoing and remain,

Sincerely,

Peter Sebastian
American Ambassador, ret.

BEGIN DECLARATION:

"EXPERIENCE SPEAKS OUT: FORMER US DIPLOMATS FOR OBAMA

We are a diverse group of over 200 former Foreign Service officers. Each of us has had extensive experience in implementing the international affairs and national security policies of both Republican and Democratic administrations. We have first hand knowledge of the grave multiple challenges of the Cold War, a period of peril but one in which the United States wore with honor the mantle of leadership. In cooperation with other democracies, and dialog with countries that were not, our nation found solutions to problems which seemed intractable. Senator Obama can place our national again in that position of trust, credibility and respect.

Elections 2008 and the Wild Cards

By Patricia H. Kushlis

This is the most bizarre American election that I’ve ever witnessed – and I’ve watched a lot of them from here and abroad – including Elections 2000 from the 93rd floor of the World Trade Center, Tower II, as New Mexico State Manager for Voter News Service which was unjustly and erroneously blamed for miscalling Florida. Please believe me, VNS did not miscall Florida: the crooked elections that took place under Jeb Bush’s watch as Governor of Florida were the real miscreants – but that’s another story. In any event, the bizarreness of that election only started to come to light very late election night – then events spun out of control.

What I’m referring to this time around, however, has two separate aspects: 1) John McCain’s increasing reliance on throwing what the media has come to call “Hail Mary Passes” and 2) my belief that opinion polls are becoming less and less able to assess voter opinion accurately.

• John McCain’s all too frequent “Hail Mary Passes”

First came McCain’s last minute, ill-considered selection of the grossly incompetent Sarah Palin as his running mate – unless, of course, one considers that anyone who meets the bare minimum Constitutional requirements for assuming office by being at least 35 years old and a native born American is competent, not just minimally qualified, to stand a heart-beat away from the Oval Office.

Second McCain’s strange behavior this past week – as the polls started to sink in the “wrong direction” – by blowing off a scheduled interview with David Letterman on the Tonight Show and lying about it and then topping that off with an off-again – on-at-the-last-minute-again approach to the first presidential debate. How many more “Hail Mary Passes” will McCain throw between now and November 4 and how long will the American public allow him to do so before this little boy’s cries of “wolf, wolf” turn into liabilities?

• Opinion polling problems

Another wildcard in the deck, however, is of a very different kind, namely the ability of the polling organizations to track the American electorate’s views accurately.

I question whether any polling organization is truly capable of reporting public opinion anywhere near as accurately as before the days of cell phones and early vote. The problem, of course, is that more and more Americans are dumping telephone landlines – most pollsters’ data life lines – for cell phones and cable for connecting with the outside world. The problem for pollsters is that it’s impossible to collect data from cell phone only voters.

Then there’s the other wildcard that the polling organizations have not taken into enough consideration, namely the effects of early vote on election predictions. In years past – before early vote (EV) became a major factor, Election Day exit polls which – I might add were conducted by VNS (now taken over by AP) - were considered amazingly accurate. They were important factors in the predictions made by the major networks elections night.

But here’s the dilemma: more and more people are voting early – but where are the exit pollsters at representative Early Vote sites? And if not, is there a formula that will adequately reflect these voters’ votes?

So hold onto your hats. This wild election ride is likely to continue: McCain will probably continue his erratic behavior in increasingly desperate attempts to throw the well organized Obama campaign off-guard and too many polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

Hmmm...

by Cheryl Rofer

Are MSNBC and Vanity Fair reading WhirledView?

Bush Second-Guessed Israel!

by Cheryl Rofer

So says the Guardian today.

Israel gave serious thought this spring to launching a military strike on Iran's nuclear sites but was told by President George W Bush that he would not support it and did not expect to revise that view for the rest of his presidency, senior European diplomatic sources have told the Guardian.

That would account for the flurry of reports this spring and summer about a possible attack on Israel, including Benny Morris's hysterical screed demanding that the United States preventively attack Iran to pre-empt Israel's preventive attack. Stories leak out, sometimes distorted.

Of course, Bush was second-guessing Israel at about the same time McCain was singing "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!"

And Sarah Palin has told us at least twice now that we mustn't second-guess Israel. Of course, it's possible to parse her confusing words in many ways. But she seems to have the bad guys straight from the good guys. It must be those black turbans that are the giveaway.