by Cheryl Rofer
Or, more on Georgia from the near abroad. (I added the part about the near abroad to the title. It's not there.)
Paul Goble continues his excellent commentary, based on his reading Russian-language sources.
I didn't realize that Georgia was still a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the figleaf of vain hope dreamed up in 1991 by the Soviet republics that couldn't quite believe they were on their own. It hasn't gone far, but it seems to me that remaining in the CIS while courting NATO is hypocrisy of a very high order. In any case, Goble tells us that Georgia is now thinking of pulling out of the CIS, although they can hardly be expecting an invitation from NATO any time soon.
I'm staking out a position different from most commentators, although I may be close to Goble. I think that this little adventure will cost Russia. It is likely to push Russia's "near abroad" further away and to put them more on guard against Russia, more willing to look to other countries (which might even include China for the 'stans) as balancing forces. Russia was careful to try to confine this action to Georgia, leaving the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline alone. Also, although their propaganda offensive was heavy-handed, with their military designated as "peacekeepers" and rapidly claiming genocide against the Georgians, Russia saw the necessity to explain its actions to the world in some way; it didn't just tell the rest of us to fuggetabout its knocking its very own near abroad around. Additionally, Russian commentators are concerned about the effect of this operation on the stability of the north Caucausus, including Chechnya.
The price will be long-term and may be balanced by the need for Russian petroleum, particularly in Europe. But Russia is not a clear-cut winner, even though it has reached some of its near-term goals.
Also from Goble: Russians don't believe their television news either.
Inno Kell is writing a lot on Estonian reaction to the Georgian situation, but in Estonian. In a gesture of solidarity, he bought a bottle of Georgian wine the other day. He has discovered that there is a statue of Stalin in the central square at Gori and a photo and statue at the railroad station (photos available at link). This may tie in with Georgia's continuing membership in the CIS, indicating a more divided allegiance than we have been led to believe by those not-so-believable western media outlets. Or it may just be a matter of local boy makes good.