WhirledView

Saturday Pruning Blogging

by CKR

The wind wasn’t blowing on Wednesday. Usually, when the wind dies down for a day or so (the best we can expect in the New Mexico spring), I am crabby enough about the days I wanted to go out and couldn’t that I decide that I’ll show the weather: I won’t go out even when it’s nice. My mother called that cutting off my nose to spite my face.

So until mid-afternoon, when I felt I owed it to the birds to fill the feeder and retrieve the birdbath from the tree it had blown under and fill it, I stayed in. But it was so beautiful, and I have been so annoyed looking at some of the things that need to be pruned or cleaned up (not least the trash that blew in, including a large Home Depot drop cloth), that I decided to stay out.

Not much is coming up yet. Those little sprouts whose photo I posted a week or so ago haven’t increased much. Three tulips just starting out of a half-dozen or so in that spot. No sign of the daylilies or evening primroses. The iris are beginning to grow, including from some of the places where the tops totally died. So maybe I won’t have to dig them up and replant this year.

Except for a week in which water meters froze around town (not mine, fortunately!), it had seemed to me that this past winter was warmer than the one before. But the plants aren’t acting like it. Of course, that little tulip is on the north side of the house, still in shade all day.

I removed the tops of some ornamental grass that was in a pot all last summer. It was listed as a perennial, so I planted it out in one of the beds. One of the clumps had a small sprout, not yet distinguishable from cheatgrass. I also planted rosemary, chives and thyme from a pot last year. The rosemary is beginning to green up. Its leaves seem to be perpetual. It too is on the north side of the house.

I pruned one chamisa bush that I can see from my office window. Eager to get it done, I didn’t bother to get the camera for a “before” photo, but I left the prunings there, to the left, so you can see what I removed. There are two to go, and I provide their “before” photos. I think I will use the branches for erosion control around the yard. I also pruned two lilacs, three Russian sage (transplanted too many times now, but still alive), and one crabapple tree.

But I haven’t been out since. Thursday evening I went to a panel discussion at the Santa Fe Institute. Someone opened the doors to cool off the very full house, and at least two people left coughing and choking. I could feel my eyes getting itchy, and yesterday was spent recuperating from what must have been astronomical concentrations of pollen. Today has been relatively still, but I’m wary about going out. I took this photo in my yard before my pollen-induced incarceration. The Siberian elms are doing it. I think that my problem is mostly with the junipers, though.

A Few Thoughts on Maundy Thursday Night's Massacre at Foggy Bottom

By Patricia H. Kushlis

Here I thought the State Department's inept handling of passport matters had ended last summer. Not to mention Ambassador Maura Harty's too lengthy tenure as head of the Bureau of Consular Affairs when she recently sashayed out the door - apparently with a more than gentle push.

I was wrong.

This late breaking Easter week flap over unauthorized State Department contractor employee access to presidential candidate passport files - evidently not just Obama's but also Clinton and McCain's - is competing for the breaking headline Good Friday announcement with New Mexico's Governor Bill Richardson's endorsement of Obama's candidacy for president.

I don't equate the two news items - just that when all is supposed to be quiet - even reverential, it never is. A slow news day? Guess not.

Clearly there's more to the latest passport file snooping story than meets the eye: but in my view, the meeting-the-eye problem has as much to do with State Department mismanagement over a period of years than as it relates to the whiff of a potential election year political plumbers' type scandal. Or maybe the two will turn out to be intertwined. We'll see.

Two of State's many management problems are structural. All have political and potential legal overtones. They can and should be corrected. Now. Not later. I hope Congressional oversight looks into the systemic problems behind this latest Consular Affairs Bureau fiasco as well as focusing on the two companies and the employees involved thereby skimming the surface of the huge management morass lurking just under the surface at Foggy Bottom.

But then the State Department is not known as a Speedy Gonzales. We'll also see if the names now in the media of the employees' companies are delivered by State to Waxman's oversight committee by Monday as he has demanded.

Condoleezza Rice told MSNBC earlier that the passport file access matter is being turned over to State's Inspector General. Well yes. But State hasn't had a confirmed IG since the most recent politically appointed IG, Howard "Cookie" Krongard left under a cloud late last year. Krongard's premature departure happened for excellent reasons relating in part to fallout from yet another private contractor embarrassment, namely trigger-happy Blackwater contract security guards playing shoot-em-up with innocent Iraqis as targets at Mansour Square in the middle of Baghdad in September.

In short, this latest passport file fiasco is yet another outsourcing scandal to be laid at the foot of the current disastrous administration and the ill-fated State Department during Condi's tenure as its Secretary.

Oh and by the way, during his tenure at State, Krongard also managed to all but destroy the IG's office to the point that the few employees left complained to Congressman Henry Waxman's House oversight committee about Krongard's gross mismanagement last fall. State's IG, by the way, does have a responsibility to the Hill as well as the Executive Branch. It's probably a good thing that Krongard is long gone because this new passport file investigation clearly needs someone who will act far more responsibly and rapidly than "cover-up" Cookie would have ever done.

State's Acting IG, William Todd obviously has his hands full this Easter weekend and they aren't with Easter eggs to be hidden for the kiddies. Todd's credentials certainly look better than Krongard's on paper at least. If Todd and the head of the office's Investigations Unit handle this one right, it may be the case that makes their careers. Or if not, the one that breaks them.

Meanwhile, State has four, if not five or more fundamental problems that relate to this latest mess.

The first problem is the over-zealous outsourcing to the private sector of work that should be being undertaken by career professionals and not minimum-wage contract employees with minimal background checks. The second problem is a Department that is strangling itself and its accountability with top heavy hierarchy as a result of an outdated management structure: it doesn't manage itself well - as the latest AFSA employee survey demonstrated - so how can it possibly begin to oversee outside contractors adequately. The third problem is the lack of a functioning mechanism to enforce internal integrity. The fourth problem is the Constitutional question of invasion and protection of individual privacy. And the fifth problem is the over-politicization of the bureaucracy.

Outsourcing run amok again

Arthur C. Clarke, 1917 - 2008

by CKR

Arthur C. Clarke was an imposing figure of the twentieth century. His chosen field was science and its effects on us. He used the medium of science fiction to explore it.

He is being remembered in the media for the book behind the movie "2001: A Space Odyssey," but he wrote many, many other science fiction short stories and novels.

I read somewhere that we mourn not so much for the people themselves who have died, but for the parts of ourselves that end with their death.

He was not my favorite science-fiction writer. I think that my love of science fiction came too early in my life to appreciate his writing, which required more maturity than I had in my teens. I did enjoy "The Nine Billion Names of God," which packed the punch I enjoyed at the time, in a simple, but mind-bending concept: that if all the names of God could be enumerated, the universe would have served its purpose and would end. A computer is programmed to enumerate those names. It succeeds, and the stars begin going out, one by one.

That's a very current story for today in multiple dimensions, many years on from the writing. I still get that same shiver down the back of my neck as I write this.

He imagined geosynchronous satellites long before they were a reality and looked forward to meeting aliens in space in more realistic ways (perhaps - we still don't know what will happen) than other writers. He combined the self-assurance of prediction with the profound humility of knowing that we really don't know what will happen, in the best way that science can.

He was a figure who I paid attention to, someone to be looked up to, someone whose name I noticed in the news, part of my intellectual world. I lost my interest in science fiction a long time ago, but Arthur Clarke continued. I tried to reread some of his books, recognizing that my immaturity might have contributed to my lukewarm response to them, but the science fiction part no longer resonated.

Here are obituaries and tributes from others.

New York Times

Washington Post

The Guardian

Kingdaddy

Armchair Generalist

Shane Deichman. Further links here.

Misusing Science

by CKR

I posted an op-ed by David Barash the other day on WhirledView Choice, with a snarky comment about the author being male. What occurred to me as strange was that Barash knew better, in a couple of dimensions. I've read other stuff he's written.

Now Jenny Duschek, a science writer, replies that science is showing us that neither females nor males are perfectly monogamous, even in species that were thought to be exemplars of the form.

And here's an even better exposition of that research, some of it done by, er, David Barash.

We may speculate about men's hormonal difficulties in thinking about sex and applying logic simultaneously. But isn't that kind of talk getting tired? Once it was us women. Then the endocrinologists came along to show us that men had hormones too. I recall hearing Estelle Ramey, back in the seventies, saying "Women have cycles. Men have cycles. Cabbages have cycles." She was replying to the common wisdom of that time, which was that women's raging hormones unfit them for thoughtful professions and, of course, politics. And, oh yeah, they were crazy when those hormones slowed down, too.

So now it's men's raging hormones. Those hormones don't unfit them for thoughtful professions or politics, never did. But they do justify hiring prostitutes, dumping middle-aged wives for trophies, and other lapses of monogamy.

Please.

Cabbages have cycles, just like humans. That doesn't mean that we all have to send down roots and sit outside fattening up in the cool spring days, then send up a seed stalk in the hotter summer. Swans aren't monogamous. Worms fuse together in sexual ecstasy. Preying mantises eat their mates. Some male fishes take care of the kids while their spouses go out and have fun.

Humans are capable of thought and choice, even commitment. We don't have to be slaves to our biochemistry. Spitzer made a choice every time he thumbed in a text message, pulled out his credit card, signed into a hotel. So do all men. They are no more slaves to their hormones than are women.

Some concerts are not “just concerts:” The New York Philharmonic in Pyongyang

By Patricia H. Kushlis

Photo credits © Chris Lee

Dear Ms. Rice and Ms. Perino:

Too bad you “had” to miss the concert of the season. But it’s still not too late to catch a rerun on the Internet. That is, of course, of the New York Philarmonic’s ground-breaking performance in Pyongyang on February 26, 2008. It’s right there on the New York Philharmonic’s website. So is the program booklet: a souvenir surely to be passed down from generation to generation. This classy booklet also includes thanks to various sponsors and supporters. Other videos on that same website show additional parts of the visit. Take a peek if you haven’t. You might just learn something about how smart diplomacy is supposed to work.

In my experience, successful diplomacy is multifaceted and the mantra “might-makes-right” is a small part of the equation. Besides, these days, “gun-boat diplomacy” just isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. If nothing more, the Philharmonic’s music is sweet, the program booklet classy and, your support conspicuously absent for this endeavor in the program’s “With Appreciation” section.

Remember when the US and the Chinese played ping-pong diplomacy? Or further back, reading about the fiery debate between Richard Nixon and Nikita Khrushchev in the display kitchen in that first official American exhibit to the Soviet Union? Or how about when Van Cliburn won the Tchaikovsky piano competition in Moscow in the darkest depths of the Cold War? These events still evoke powerful memories and considerabale archival photo or television footage. Eisenhower may have stayed out of that particular kitchen, but Vice President Richard Nixon did not stay home feigning a previous engagement. That was, however, during the days when the US government and the private sector did work together to show the best of America abroad.

A Sea-Change - from the North Korean perspective - possibly in the air?

The fact that the North Koreans themselves invited the New York Philharmonic to perform in their capital, built a special acoustic shell at their own expense because the hall’s sound did not meet the orchestra’s requirements, did not attempt to tamper with the program, and ensured that the hotel the musicians stayed in had heat – when the rest of the country did not – sounds, to me at least – as if a sea-change in relations, at least from the Pyongyang perspective, could be in the air. South Korea, if I’ve got it right, provided the specially heated trucks needed to transport the orchestra’s instruments through Pyongyang’s bitter cold and Asiana, one of South Korea’s two major airlines, provided the Philharmonic’s transportation for the visit.

The American right wing – as exemplified by a grumbling editorial in The Washington Times – belittled the visit even before it happened. Why? Because, this ‘enlightened’ segment of our population claimed, as you did, that only North Korean officials were able to attend the concert.

Give me a break, when the US brought performing arts groups to the Soviet Union in the late 1970s as part of the official cultural exchanges agreement between the two nuclear titans, the US Embassy Press and Cultural Office where I worked made sure that Soviet officials of importance to Embassy staff received free tickets. The remainder went on sale – but it was never clear to me how accessible those remaining tickets really were, at least in Moscow - to the Ivan Ivanovs on the street. Cultural events then spoke loudly of political dimensions: and they once again demonstrated public diplomacy’s soft power in easing strains between international adversaries - even for a single night. Besides, pray tell, in a Communist country, how many people are not officials? Doesn’t everyone work for the state – like it or not? Or did I miss something when I worked in Moscow during Soviet days.

"Symphonic diplomacy"

Let’s get something else straight: despite your wet-noodle characterizations of the concert in Pyongyang, the New York Philharmonic clearly reached far beyond the “intimate” well-dressed, well fed audience of 1,000 at the East Pyongyang Grand Theatre that evening of February 26, 2008. Take a look at the videos. Ovations and audience shots are included. Meanwhile, the program was broadcast live on radio and television throughout the “hermit” kingdom: not that we learned that from you, our official spokespersons, Ms. Rice and Ms. Perino or, for that matter from the State Department's Tom Casey. In fact, Ms. Perino, you did your best to downplay this aspect of the visit when asked about it by the media.

Not only did the orchestra play the rarely heard “Star Spangled Banner” in Pyongyang that magical evening, it concluded with “Arirang,” a Korean folk tune familiar on both sides of the demilitarized zone dividing the country in two. This song has become an unofficial symbol of reunification. Otherwise, the program was foremost a tribute to America – from Anton Dvorak’s "New World Symphony" to Leonard Bernstein’s "Candide." Furthermore, the musicians did not just go from hotel to concert hall and back again. Looks to me as if their talents were put to good use otherwise, too – as should have happened when an American performing arts group travels abroad. Check out those videos: you’ll see. They’re for real and not inventions from “Second Life.”

The Polls Have It Wrong

by CKR

Articles like this give me a bad feeling.

I’ve been thinking since the early primaries that there is something fundamentally wrong with the way the opinion polls are structured. They divide up the country into neat categories. Let’s take a Pew Research poll. Pew is an experienced and reliable organization within the polling community.

It starts out with divisions into Republicans and Democrats. That’s fair enough, since the poll, from before “Super Tuesday,” is about how people will vote.

But then it goes to the traditional “demographics:” Men, women, white, black, white men, white women, age groups, education, income, religion, primary date on which they will be voting.

These categories are easy to come by. Just ask the people you’re polling. But right away we can see problems: “white” and “black” hardly cover all the ways people think of themselves now, not to mention that it leaves out Latinos or sorts them into those two big baskets.

In the science I’ve done, the reason for breaking data down into categories is to try to pick up patterns; that’s what the polls try to do too. But in my science, I try to make the categories correspond to how cause and effect might work. That’s easier in chemistry than in polling. In chemistry there are some basic principles that limit cause and effect.

The polls are constantly interpreted as if they enlighten us as to cause and effect. From that article I linked up top:

In the fierce campaign between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, a battle dominated by questions of race and gender, white men have emerged as perhaps the single critical swing constituency.

Lots of assumptions in that single sentence.

An examination of exit polls in Wisconsin and Ohio, states with striking similarities, shows that many more working-class white men in Ohio said race was a factor in their vote on March 4 than was the case in Wisconsin. The analysis makes clear that race was not the deciding factor in the Ohio primary but did contribute to Clinton's margin of victory.

Even more assumptions here. In my science, I’d try to hold variables constant so that I could look at one at a time. This isn’t possible in polling, The best that can be done is encapsulated in “states with striking similarities.” But people in those two states are not identical, and the votes were on different days, with much news and conversation in between. That “single critical swing constituency” represents a choice on the part of the analyst. Depending on what one wants to focus on, the difference in any election can be attributed to many groups, or the difference can be found in a composite of groups.

Iraq War Anniversary Links

by CKR

We can expect an onslaught of opinion pieces on the Iraq war this week, the fifth anniversary of the invasion.

I don't have much to add. Since I wasn't blogging at the time, I can't point back to my prescience or lack of it. I will say that I thought it was a bad idea from the start, and I did raise concerns on a discussion board when the looting started and Rumsfeld told us not to worry.

So here are links from those who have more to say.

Armchair Generalist is selecting news items from each day in the countdown to shock and awe anniversary.

The New York Times has nine op-ed contributors on the subject.

Tom Engelhardt writes the first post for the sixth anniversary. Helmut alerted me to the important part of this piece: the inside-the-beltway common wisdom on Iraq and foreign policy.

Sunday Making the Best of It Blogging

by CKR

Ugh. I'm sitting here popping Jelly Bellies (one at a time, of course, to enjoy the diverse flavors) instead of pruning my cultivated shrubs and the multiple and overgrown chamisa bushes. It's not snow this weekend, but rather our famous New Mexico spring winds. It seems that as the ground warms in the spring, the air above it also warms in such a way as to bring down the jet streams to ground level.

This brings out the once-a-year sex life of the one-seed junipers (Juniperus monosperma). Each tree is either male or female, and they have no attractively-scented flowers to draw pollinators. To make up for this deficiency, they produce what must be thousands of tons of pollen over their growing area in the US Southwest and launch it on the winds.

The pollen convinces human immune systems that it must be cleared from the body at all costs, preferably by production of copious mucus and violent sneezing. We humans have gotten a bit smart about this, and the antihistamines prevent most of this. Everyone I've talked to so far this year agrees that it seems much less irritating than last. I've wondered if the provocative chemical compounds vary from year to year, or if my system varies, because there do seem to be different impacts.

That all adds up to not so bad this year. So far.

In any case, it is maximum foolishness to be outside in the maelstrom of toxic tree particulates and flying plastic bags.

So let's see what's in the camera anyway. And maybe some links.

That photo up at the top is the only bird photo I've taken lately. In my rearrangements to discourage the ravens, I moved a thistle-seed stocking around from the north side of the house to the south. It didn't have much activity on the north side, any how. It's not too far from the sunflower-safflower-millet feeder, which all the other finches prefer, although occasionally a housefinch or two will check out the thistle seeds.

This photo is of a pine siskin (Carduelis pinus). You can see a bit of yellow at its tail. Maybe I'll see some American and Western goldfinches as spring attempts to get through the wind. They're in the Carduelis genus, too, and they love thistle seeds.

If you like to look at photos of galaxies and would also like to contribute to astronomy, wander over to GalaxyZoo. After passing a fairly easy test of your ability to distinguish a spiral galaxy from a star, you will be able to send in your analyses of new galaxies.

For the photos of tapirs you won't get from me (none in the back yard, sadly), check out Tapirs.org. Their international symposium is coming up the last week of April in Mexico! Check it out!

For more (much more) information on Tibet than you're getting in today's newspapers (or even from Jamie at Blood & Treasure), check out the Center for Research on Tibet. It's worth it just for the slide show across the top.