by CKR
Here is what eyeball observers of the Jane Shelby type think will be the path of US193, that poorly-launched satellite, on February 21 (Thursday!), the day that the US will probably try to shoot it down.
Stolen from a comment thread at Arms Control Wonk and Obsat.
It appears that the path of debris will be into the Pacific Ocean, over northern Canada or into the Atlantic Ocean if the satellite is hit. Both of these areas are sparsely populated, no doubt a big reason for choosing that area for the attempted shoot-down. We don't know, however, what area the decaying orbit would endanger if left to itself. The hazards of the shoot-down, then, are less than are calculated here.
Jeffrey Lewis's position on the shoot-down is
DON’T FREAKING DO IT.If Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, or even President Bush would stand up and make a clear statement, stating what they think will happen if they don't do anything, what they plan to do, what they expect will happen, and why they're doing it, I think they might look a lot better than they do now. Of course, such a statement will be weaker than if they made it initially. It would be strengthened by talks with the Chinese and the Russians, out of the public eye. We can't know that such talks aren't going on, but given the history of the Bush administration, we can assume that the probability is lower than the probability that one of the chunks of satellite will land on someone's head.
And there is, of course, the humiliating possibility that the shoot-down will miss. But I'm sure that the briefers knew better than to present that one to the President.
Update: Here's the backstory. Looks like the shot might not take place tonight (Wednesday).