by CKR
The New York Times today tells us that the United States knew about the Chinese antisatellite test a few months back, but chose not to say anything to them, partly because of their excessive penchant for secrecy. If we let them know that our surveillance abilities have told us about their upcoming test, then they can figure out some things about our surveillance abilities.
Well, yes. I've had conversations with Russian scientists in which they said something fairly innocuous, and I realized that I had just learned quite a bit about how they did things that they wouldn't have been able to say directly. I've also seen that light in their eyes when I said something totally unclassified.
If you've got a certain baseline of knowledge and understanding, then just a small additional piece of information can tell you quite a bit. You can choose how to deal with that: shrink back into a more total secrecy in the hopes of keeping everything secret forever, or live with the fact that science works in all cultures.
That was the chance that both the United States and the Soviet Union took throughout the Cold War to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. They worked together to develop the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and they applied pressure to their allies to stay away from nuclear weapons. They saw the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles as the greater danger.
Now we have a government in the United States that sees such weapons as a lesser danger than something; it's not clear to me what their greater danger is. That's the conclusion I have to draw from reports like the Times's.
They even lose track of the fact that it might be quite useful for a competitor to know just how much you're capable of knowing. They might be able to block it, too, but we keep coming up with more of that good stuff. Always have.
In another flashback to the Cold War, the United States has begun building walls in Baghdad to separate communities. The Israelis, of course, have their wall, and the US Congress has passed a bill to build a wall along the border with Mexico, although I believe it hasn't been funded.
The faith in bricks and mortar to bring peace parallels the faith in guns and bombing to bring democracy.
Remember the Berlin Wall? A symbol of Communist oppression?
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has better sense: he has called for the wall-building to stop.
In both of these cases, the tools of diplomacy have been rejected. No discussions with the Chinese to head off the missile test, which has put yet more space junk into orbit to bollix up useful satellites. No working on incorporating the Sunni more fully into the Iraqi nation, just build a wall.
Dealing with people seems so indeterminate, while using the technology seems so quantitative. But we can't afford the consequences of tying that one hand behind our back.