by CKR
Marc Lynch has published an important article for understanding what is going on among Sunni factions in Iraq. According to him, it's not at all the way the MSM is reporting it. I find it a bit difficult to understand, partly because I'm not acquainted with the names of the groups in the way he is, an partly, I suspect, because it doesn't go according to most of the narratives we keep hearing.
So, at the risk of oversimplification, let me sketch out what Lynch is saying. Please read the whole article and correct me if I've got it wrong; I'm trying to understand it myself.
Islamic State of Iraq = Al-Qaeda's declared polity in Iraq.
Islamic Army of Iraq = One of the insurgency's stronger factions.
In October 2006, al-Qaeda declared the Islamic State of Iraq and now is aggressively insisting that others line up with its program. The Islamic Army of Iraq and some tribal leaders are voicing objections to al-Qaeda leaders outside Iraq.
The American presence in Iraq is part of al-Qaeda's program: Iraq is at the center of their global jihad, presumably where the Caliphate is to be reconstituted. The Americans provide propaganda and targets. Other Sunni factions see their primary goal as an independent Iraq, with the American gone. They are not interested in exporting jihad.
So one of the threats dragged out by the "stay the course" faction, the establishment of an al-Qaeda base in Iraq, is already established. The American presence feeds it. Other factions are turning against al-Qaeda, but not because of the American surge. They are the ones we hear about on the tv news who are asking for deadlines for withdrawal.
We're not talking about divide and conquer here, or the enemy of my enemy being my friend. None of them like the Americans, but if we weren't there, the focus might be on driving al-Qaeda from the country.