by CKR
With the accusations that North Korea’s nuke was all the Clinton administration’s fault, I thought I’d check out the timing of events. Selig Harrison claims that the United States undermined North Korea’s finances just as the Six-Party Talks seemed to be coming to agreement. Gary Samore agrees.
In checking out the dates, I found a number of interesting papers on the Agreed Framework and subsequent events, which I link throughout the timeline. Here are two that I don’t link there but are equally worth reading, from the Congressional Research Service and The Nonproliferation Review.
The timeline includes most of the relevant events. Additions and corrections gratefully accepted. I’ll comment later.
October 21, 1994 Ambassador Robert Gallucci and Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju sign the Agreed Framework.
January 1995 North Korea lifts restrictions on trade and telecommunications services with the US. The US follows suit, permitting telephone calls and credit card use in North Korea.
1996 Interception of a North Korean submarine infiltrating the waters off South Korea delays the ground-breaking at the Kumho light-water reactor site.
May 1997 North Korea tests its AG-1 cruise missile. A Pentagon official downplays the threat, saying that it uses "unimpressive, old technology" from Russian Styx and Chinese Silkworm missiles.
September 1997 A U.S. military satellite detects the deployment of a Nodong-1 missile in possible preparation for a test launch. The missile is believed to be capable of reaching Tokyo. A U.S. State Department official claims that North Korea earned close to $1 billion from missile sales over the past decade, making it the foremost missile exporter in the world.
June 1998 North Korea publicly admits that it exports missiles and demands that the United States "lift the economic embargo [on North Korea] as early as possible and make a compensation for the losses to be caused by discontinued missile export."
August 1998 North Korea tests a nuclear-capable Taepo Dong-1 missile. The missile flies over northern Japan and lands in the Pacific Ocean. They later announce that the test was actually a launch to deploy a satellite. A few weeks later, the U.S. State Department admits that North Korea did attempt to orbit a satellite as it had claimed, but failed. A three-stage Taepo Dong rocket was launched, but the satellite fell into the Pacific still attached to the third stage.
October 1998 The US House of Representatives removes all funding for the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO, the organization set up to administer the Agreed Framework) from its version of the foreign operations appropriations bill. After President Clinton threatened to veto the legislation, Congress includes the requested $35 million for KEDO, but adds 12 certification requirements or related reports, which the administration would have to meet, waive in the interest of national security, or submit, before appropriations for KEDO would be made available.
February 1999 George Tenet, the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI), tells Congress that North Korea is developing missiles that are capable of hitting the continental United States.
July 1999 North Korea proceeds with plans to test-fire the Taepo Dong-II, which has an estimated range of 3,750 miles, far enough to hit Alaska and Hawaii.
September 1999 North Korean TV displays a Taepo Dong-1 missile, allowing analysts to confirm that its first stage has a single engine exhaust and not a cluster of four smaller motors as originally believed. The single exhaust lends support to the allegation that Pyongyang helped Pakistan develop its Ghauri missile and helped Iran develop its Shahab-3 missile, and that both are similar to the Nodong.
September 1999 American and North Korean delegates meet in Berlin, where North Korea agrees to freeze the testing of long-range missiles. In response the U.S. agrees to ease some economic sanctions. One week later, North Korea declares its right to launch missiles.
2000 North Korea and KEDO conclude a number of regulatory agreements that include protocols on juridical status, privileges, immunity and consular protection; communications; transportation; labor, goods, facilities and other services; site take-over, site access, and use of the site; and nonpayment. These protocols essentially grant extraterritoriality to KEDO at the Kumho site, where one of the light water reactors is to be built. But additional regulatory issues remain before operation of the LWRs can begin, including export licenses for US firms supplying components.
June 2000 Less than a week after a historic meeting between the leaders of North and South Korea, the Clinton administration eases some sanctions against North Korea. North Korea declares that it will extend its moratorium on long-range missile test flights, and the United States responds with plans to resume talks on curbing North Korea's missile program.
27 September to 2 October 2000 North Korea seeks a relaxation of sanctions in bilateral talks held in New York on issues including proliferation and terrorism. The talks were described as positive, but the only concrete result of the talks made public was National Defense Commission First Vice Chairman Jo Myong Rok’s visit to the US during 9-12 October.
6 June 2001 President Bush issues a statement outlining policy objectives related to implementation of the U.S.-North Korean 1994 Agreed Framework on North Korea’s nuclear program, North Korea’s missile program, and its conventional forces. He states that if North Korea takes positive actions in response to the U.S. approach, the United States “will expand our efforts to help the North Korean people, ease sanctions, and take other political steps.”
29 January 2002 In his State of the Union address, President Bush declares North Korea part of the “Axis of Evil.”
September 2002 North Korea confirms that it will continue its moratorium on missile tests.
Oct. 16, 2002 Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia James Kelly discloses that North Korea admitted to having a program to enrich uranium for use in nuclear weapons. North Korea publicly declares it has such a program. KEDO responds by suspending the shipment of heavy-fuel oil provided for under the Agreed Framework.
Dec. 10, 2002 North Korea announces it will restart plutonium production and eject the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors who monitored North Korea's compliance with the Agreed Framework.
Jan. 10, 2003 North Korea withdraws from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
27-29 August 2003 First round of six-party talks agrees to meet again; no other agreement.
End of 2003 Congress completely eliminates funding for KEDO in the FY2004 budget.
25-28 February 2004 Second round of six-party talks issues a Chairman's Statement with seven articles, including denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula; peaceful coexistence of participating states, stressing the use of mutually coordinated measures to resolve crises; and agreement to hold the third round of talks during the second quarter of 2004.
23-25 June 2004 Third round of six-party talks issues a Chairman's Statement with eight articles, including reconfirming the commitment to denuclearising the Korean Peninsula, stressing specification of the scope and time, interval (between steps of) and method of verification, and agreement to hold the fourth round of talks in Beijing before September 2004.
26 July - 7 August 2005 First phase of the fourth round of six-party talks. The US and North Korea cannot agree on 'peaceful' use of nuclear energy. Talks are recessed for three weeks due to ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting.
13-19 September 2005 Second phase of the fourth round of six-party talks. A Joint Statement is issued which includes verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula; realization of the 1992 Korean Peninsula Denuclearization Declaration; North Korea to agree to abandon all nuclear weapons and nuclear programs and return to the NPT as soon as possible; states to respect North Korea's right to peaceful use of nuclear; issues relating to the light-water reactors to be discussed at a later time; US and the South Korea to formally declare that they have no nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula; US will practice non-aggression towards North Korea; US will work to normalize ties with North Korea and to respect its sovereignty and right to co-exist peacefully; Japan will normalize relations with North Korea through the Pyongyang Statement by settling historical disputes; North Korea will receive economic cooperation and aid with energy, to which the five other members will serve as guarantors; South Korea will channel two million kilowatts of power to North Korea; the Korean Peninsula peace treaty to be negotiated separately. A fifth round of talks will be held in November 2005.
September 2005 US pressures Banco Delta Asia, based in Macau, to freeze $24 million from North Korea.
October 2005 US accuses North Korea of counterfeiting $100 bills. (7, 8)
9-11 November 2005 First phase of the Fifth Round of the Six-Party Talks. Joint Statement issued similar to that of the previous round. No agreement on when the next talks would be held.
April 2006 North Korea offered to resume talks if the US releases recently frozen North Korean financial assets held in Banco Delta Asia.
July 2006 North Korea fires seven missile tests, the first since the September 1999 moratorium.
October 2006 North Korea fires an underground nuclear test.