By PHK
Brent Scowcroft spoke at a round table Tuesday at the University of New Mexico in support of our illustrious anti-arms control, pro-Iraq War Congresswoman Heather Wilson who is running for reelection to the House. Or at least he supposedly did so according to an article hidden below-the-fold in the October 17 Albuquerque Journal’s Metro section. Since this “independent” Journal has a Republican bias, I searched for a report of the meeting the following day figuring that the newspaper wouldn’t miss an opportunity to spread any good news about a Republican candidate, but nothing appeared. Nothing appeared the day after the day after either. Then I checked the Daily Lobo, the University of New Mexico student newspaper since the event was supposed to have occurred on campus, but came up empty there, too. Did Scowcroft get cold feet at the last minute, was the session off-the-record, was the press uninterested or what happened?
More importantly, would someone please tell me why Scowcroft was here – or supposed to have been here - to help bail out one of W’s most loyal Congressional henchwomen? After all Ms. Wilson was one of this administration’s front row cheerleaders for the US invasion of Iraq as she has been and continues to be for most everything else the W administration has proposed over the past six years. Yuup. This even though our illustrious Congressional representative has portrayed herself as independent and moderate, that is, ever since W’s approval ratings began to falter. Just check out her voting record to see how true her “independent” and moderate credentials really are. The answer, I discovered, is not.
Sounded from the Albuquerque Journal article on Scowcroft that the reporter was also trying to figure out why an eminent and seemingly rational former National Security Advisor would stump for someone whose approach to foreign policy comes from a different planet. Personally, I thought Scowcroft had more sense. Didn’t his Op Ed in the Wall Street Journal published August 15, 2002 warn that an invasion of Iraq was a terrible idea because it would harm US anti-terrorist efforts? And wasn’t this meant to be a warning shot over W’s bow? One that W, of course, failed to heed to his and this country’s peril?
Why on earth did an otherwise reasonable man like Scowcroft agree to march to RNC Chair Ken Mehlman and White House political wiz-kid Karl Rove’s drum beat – or bow to Heather’s pleas - to come all the way to New Mexico in support of someone with a foreign policy track record so antithetical to his own simply because she’s a Republican?
A cliff hanger still but the tide may be turning
The race remains a cliff-hanger. The last Journal poll published two weeks ago conducted by Brian Sanderoff, a local pollster had it neck-in-neck (44-44) but with Heather’s challenger, State Attorney General Patricia Madrid, closing the gap.
A more recent poll conducted for Albuquerque’s KOB TV (Channel Four) from Oct. 13-15 by a New Jersey based polling organization shows Madrid has now overtaken Wilson by seven percentage points among likely voters. Three other polls reported in RealClear Politics now show the gap between eight and ten percentage points in Madrid's favor.
Sure didn’t find them reported in the Journal but friends in Santa Fe told me about this AP story which appeared in the more liberal Santa Fe New Mexican. Wish I could be a fly on the wall to see what the candidates’ own private polls now report.
Republican micro-targeting on target?
Madeleine Albright and DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel were both here last week to fundraise and show national support for Patricia Madrid, our State Attorney General. All come down on the same side of the US troop presence on the Iraq issue – this election’s nationwide lightening-rod.
The good news is that this is the first election year that I have not been inundated with vote for Heather telephone calls and pleas for financial support for her campaign. And also for the first time, the number of mailings I’ve received from the RNC can be counted on one hand, maybe even one finger even though Wilson’s direct mail costs are substantial. Correction: we apparently still get some of the RCNM's anti-Madrid "smear and fear" postcards in the mail - my husband just tosses them immediately into the circular file before I get the chance to do it.
Does this mean Heather’s so well financed that she doesn’t need to ask for a potentially puny contribution from me? Or should I assume that Republican micro-targeting is, well, on target? That we’ve donated to the Madrid campaign, must have been picked up by the Republican Party by now. So should the Madrid yard sign on the lawn. I assume that would have been reported by some party loyalist in our heavily Republican and strongly pro-Heather zip code area - giving pause to any recruitment thoughts.
These should be pretty good indications that my vote is not for the asking. But nevertheless, in years gone by, our telephone answering machine was jammed with pro-Heather and anti-whomever-her-opponent was messages. What does this election year’s silence mean?
Blowing smoke?
Karl Rove was also here for a private confab with Heather a couple of weeks ago. According to Open Secrets, she’d gone through $2.6 million (nothing out of her own pockets I might note) and as of Sept. 30 had $1.35 million remaining. Lots have already been spent on television advertising – mostly attack ads - by both candidates. Since I don’t watch much television aside from BBC News and the PBS Newshour, whatever amounts either candidate spends on television on the battle for New Mexico CD#1 is wasted on me.
What does Karl Rove know that the rest of us don’t? Why did he predict a Republican victory to the editorial board of the Washington Times just this week? Was he blowing smoke in a crowded room as the Republican Party pulls funds out of races it sees as sure losers? Or what? RNC Chair Kenneth Mehlman predicted the same cheery optimistic outcome at an American Spectator Newsmaker Breakfast. So, the Republican message machine is behaving as usual: same theme, different pew.
In any event, the GOP has not announced it plans to give up on Heather despite the party’s decision to “turn tail” in Ohio. Sigh. As far as I’m concerned, the only thing she’s done right is constituent services. Presumably she’s racked up lots of personal IOUs – chits to collect on Election Day. But will they win the election when the mood of the country is to “throw the rascals out” and when New Mexico has lost at least 17 of its own in the deserts of Iraq? The voting booth is secret still - after all.
A Few Voter Stats
I checked the voter registration for District #1: 45 percent - D, 35 percent - R as of October 13.
In 2004, 46 percent of District #1 voters were registered Democrats and 34 percent Republicans. This traditionally independent district went for Heather with lots of cross-over votes. But the latest poll shows that independents may be fed up and Democratic women, at least, are returning to the party fold.
The absolute number of District One voters has increased, but registration by party hasn’t changed all that much despite a concerted nationally directed Republican registration drive. I assume that their election turn-out efforts will be as assiduous.
But given the disparity between Ds and Rs, the real issue in this quirky district is not the number of registered Republicans or their voting habits but whether enough Democrats choose to support their party’s Congressional candidate this year - for a change. And this will need to include a significant number of Hispanics.
An Election of National Significance
In the end, this election should be seen as far more than about whether a member of Congress provided a personal favor to a constituent. Rather it’s about the direction of our nation and the future of America’s democracy – all of which are a darn sight more important than returning a “you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours” once upon a time favor. This includes getting our foreign policy right and our military out of the killing fields of Iraq.
To do this a restraint needs to be placed on the run amok power of our imperial presidency and there’s only one way to do it: by a change of party in control of Congress. New Mexico District #1 is one of the most decisive and watched in this country: its voters may help make the difference.