By PLS
George Bush dropped in on India, came home and, smirking as usual, declared another foreign policy victory for his administration.
Indian PM Man Mohan Singh was also smiling, if quietly, and, to my mind, had better reason to be satisfied.
Why am I not surprised? Read the Kama Sutra and the Arthaśastra. The latter is the hard-headed ancient Indian classic about conducting affairs of state and the former, which masquerades as a manual of eroticism, is really about getting what you want on precisely the terms that suit you.
Since my colleague CKR has analyzed the technical details, I won’t recapitulate her very professional analysis on that level. Let’s just say that Bush signed an agreement with India that (1) legitimizes that country’s long term snubbing of the non-proliferation regime, (2) provides for inspecting only a fraction of Indian nuclear installations and (3) allows for importing a laundry list of items absolutely critical to sustaining India’s nuclear regime under the figleaf of supporting only the newly inspectable civilian activities.
The Bush argument: India’s an honest cheat. By not joining the non-proliferation club, India was morally free to do anything, like quietly developing and testing the bomb on its own, to say nothing of also developing delivery devices. Nice precedent, Georgie! Score: India.
In return, the trade-deficit-ridden US gets a tidy export market, and presumably the more nuclear-related stuff the US can sell abroad the more the US can support R & D and remain leaders in the field. This too: Bush satisfies his business constituency. However, the opening of this Indian market is not a clear gain for the US. India’s military program remains unaffected; with her civilian nuclear needs supplied, she can devote her major creative energies to the military side of things. Given India's concern about her neighbors, China and Pakistan, to say nothing about national pride and international leadership aspirations in a world where the nukeless are nobodies, this is an important achievement. Score: India.
Then there’s the China aspect. The Bush administration wants us to believe that a little boost to the Indian nuclear enterprise will solidify a bulwark against a resurgent China. After all, one reason India developed a nuclear deterrant in the first place was to counterbalance the Chinese arsenal. The days of Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai! (Indians and Chinese are brothers!) ended in 1962, when China invaded Eastern India and demonstrated that its army could have reached the Brahmaputra Valley had Beijing not arrested the southward thrust.
To the extent that India considers its interests vis-à-vis China to coincide with those of the US, the agreement so handily signed in New Delhi will be useful to the US. Agreement or no, however, India will look to its own welfare, and I doubt that the Indians put much faith in US support when the chips are down or the costs are high, since this administration has a well earned reputation for repudiating international agreements at whim. The bottom line is that India needed those imports and did what it had to do to get the supply pipeline flowing. Score: India.
Before I go, I want to register my unadulterated enthusiasm for one aspect of the agreement. Evidently mango imports from India are to be facilitated. Bring on the Alfonsos! I’m salivating already.