by CKR
I'm impressed with Hurricane Rita's rapid ascension from a mere tropical storm last night to a Category 5 hurricane today. So far, Rita's path seems to be toward Texas rather than New Orleans. Galveston is being evacuated, as is New Orleans.
I've heard the comments about global warming and its effect on hurricanes, so I did a quick Google search to see what I could find.
Here are some water temperatures for the eastern Gulf. Temperatures at Pensacola, Florida, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, are well above the averages for September. Likewise, temperatures in the western Gulf are uniformly above the long-term averages. I'd like some temperatures further out into the Gulf, but I haven't been able to find them.
A couple of studies of Hurricane Opal (1995) seem to show that it gained strength over warmer water. The Gulf of Mexico is warmer than the open ocean (east of Florida) because it is shallower, just as your kid's backyard pool gets warmer than the lake. Opal intensified as it moved into the Gulf, just as Rita has. But Opal also passed over a warmer eddy within the Gulf, and its surface winds almost doubled in velocity, from 35 meters/second to 60.
Two papers on one hurricane, along with current Gulf temperatures, do not constitute a full scientific study, but they do seem to be pointing in the direction of higher Gulf temperatures and more intense hurricanes.
The American Meterological Society wants a subscription for full access to their journal articles, but they provide long abstracts. Thanks to them for that convenience.