By Patricia H. Kushlis
Whitehouseology Anyone?
In the good old, bad old days before 1991 and Francis Fukuyama’s declared end of history, American Kremlinologists spent hours, days, even months and years peering over the often grainy photographs of Soviet leaders to try to fathom who was in, who was moving up, and who was among the soon to be or already departed.
This was a noble occupation that paid reasonably well – and, at the time, one of the few ways the U.S. government had to figure out the future policy direction of its major enemy. It wasn’t scientific; it wasn’t necessarily reliable – but sometimes these canny practitioners with magnifying glasses in hand read the tea-leaves right.
Since the reelection of President Bush, much of the speculation surrounding his policies and appointments for the second term resembles the practice and art of Kremlinology – the teasing out of the atmosphere clues to the future direction of the Soviet Union – this time the U.S. not Russia - between now and 2008 when this President will mercifully – and perhaps honorably - be put to pasture. Eight years as President is enough for anyone, in my view, and one of the pluses of democracy is the rotation of power among office-holders.
To return to the magnifying glass and the tea leaves. Whitehouseologist optimists suggest that Bush’s second term will bring major shifts in U.S. foreign policy because he no longer needs to rely on the hard, religious right or Haliburton for reelection and will want – like Presidents before him – to leave the country with a legacy that he and we can be proud of. Say like a comprehensive Middle East settlement that portends the advent of democracies throughout the Muslim world.
Other crystal-ball gazers, however, argue that this “born-again” President really believes in his first term’s radical foreign policies and its proponents – and we, and the world, are in for more of the same.
It’s still too early to tell for sure who's right. But – it seems to me, unfortunately, that based on news reports and instance analyses in the last few days, the continued radicalism of the neocons and the vindictiveness of their acolytes are likely to win the day. The CIA is afterall in chaos under its still new director Porter Goss’s disastrous direction.
With Colin Powell and Richard Armitage’s imminent departures from the State Department – the few voices of rationality within this administration - is Foggy Bottom far behind?