by CKR
I discussed the main technical factors that are weakening the NPT in my last post on the subject. The nontechnical factors get more complicated.
The NPT, like most treaties, is an agreement among states. In the wake of 9/11, the concern has grown that organizations like al-Qaeda may acquire nuclear weapons. The NPT does not include non-state organization. Also, with the rise of the neoconservatives, the US has taken the view that treaties take more from the US than they give back. Another neocon assumption, left over from the Cold War, has been that such organizations must operate with the support of some state(s).
While the US has not repudiated the NPT in the same way as it has the the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, the Kyoto Treaty or the International Criminal Court, it has avoided using it in broad ways. One of the reasons for this is a distrust of the United Nations, of which the International Atomic Energy Agency, the monitor of compliance with the NPT, is an agency.
Israel, India, and Pakistan never signed the NPT and have acquired nuclear weapons since the NPT came into force. Israel’s official policy is “strategic ambiguity,” but all the evidence suggests that it has nuclear weapons. India developed peaceful nuclear energy and a weapons program in parallel. Pakistan’s A. Q. Khan distributed weapons information to anyone who would pay his price. Although the Pakistani government claims to have had no knowledge of Khan’s activities, some of the activities, like delivery of components by government planes, could hardly have taken place without involvement of the government.
Both the United States and France appear to have contributed to Israel’s nuclear weapons program, in breach of the NPT. For example, a shipment of uranium fuel seems to have made its way from Pennsylvania to Israel in the 1970s. The full extent of the collaborations has been kept very quiet and may never be known. Mordechai Vanunu blew the whistle on some of this activity and was imprisoned for it until recently. He has been speaking out and is on the verge of being silenced again. (Much more about Vanunu)
India’s path shows how a peaceful nuclear power program, aided by both the US and the Soviet Union, can support the development of nuclear weapons.
I’ll say more about the US and the NPT in my next post in this series.