By Patricia Lee Sharpe
A waved olive branch isn’t a magic wand. When U.S. President Barack Obama delivered a live televised Nowruz or New Year's greeting to Iran a little while ago, his message was received with scepticism by the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is reported to have dismissed it as “sloganeering.”
The Iranian response, in turn, was noted with dismay back home and in Europe. Rejection! How awful! A humiliating mistake. A futile gesture.
Another Perspective
I wonder. What if the shoe had been on the other foot? What if we Americans had suddenly received an unusually friendly New Year’s message from a virtually unknown incoming Iranian President? Wouldn’t the reception have been cautious, even cynical, as in What’s this guy up to? Wouldn’t American leaders, similarly, have said, Hey! actions speak louder than words? And wouldn’t we, too, have sniffed that one little old speech doesn’t make up for decades of villainy, that one swallow doesn’t make a summer?
There’s another reason why it was utterly unrealistic to expect an instant We love America reaction, much less a We’ll do whatever you want. It would be unseemly, undignified. Iran would appear too eager to please. Most countries don’t like to look needy. Even a positive response is likely to be measured, even disguised, and not too quick in the coming.
On a more practical level, immediate acquiescence would empty the shop before the negotiations began. This would have been foolish in the extreme. Iran aspires to participate in world affairs as a respect-worthy regional power, a status that has been denied much too long, from the Iranian point of view.
What’s more, as the Arab News noted,
...Obama has not ruled out military action if Iran does not comply with UN standards for transparency over its nuclear program. Nor did Obama take the opportunity to resile [sic] from the crass Bush characterization of Iran as being part of the “Axis of Evil." He also demonstrated the blinkered superpower approach to nuclear deterrence, whereby it is entirely all right for the US and Israel to have a nuclear arsenal but wrong for non-nuclear powers to aspire to the same.
Put yourself in Muslim shoes of any sort. This critique will not seem off the mark.
Do as We Do
The Arab News editorial appeared on March 21st. By April 1 the nuclear equation had already begun to shift. Although commentators have pointed out, ad nauseam, that U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev didn’t fall in love at first sight when the G20 met to discuss economic and financial issues last week, and they didn’t certainly didn't overcome every obstacle to good relations, they did announce a very important understanding: further nuclear arms cuts are in the offing.
There was always a huge element of fantasy in the Bush notion that the U.S. could enhance its nuclear capabilities while preventing non-nuclear nations from going nuclear. The do-what-we-say-not-what-we-do enforcer stance was a formula for long range failure, even though Dick Cheyney and others promoted it as the best defense for the U.S. (and Israel).
If, on the other hand, the U.S. and Russia agree to further reductions and actually do reduce their nuclear arsenals, the signal is clear. These things are nasty. Their only usefulness is defensive and, for that purpose, not many are needed. So, for goodness sake, don’t burden yourself (or set off a scary costly arms race) by making a lot of useless bombs as we so stupidly did.
This is a message that wouldn’t cut much ice with Kim Jong Il. However, although Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is as verbally intemperate as they come, he’s not the Numero Uno in Iran, and there is no evidence that the far more powerful Ayatollah Khamenei is suicidal. It would indeed be unthinkable for Iran’s top leader to appear to fawn over the first few more or less nice words from a U.S. president, even a brand new one. But impatient Americans need to rein themselves in and remember that buildings are built brick by brick, girder by girder. What took nearly a century to be damaged cannot be repaired overnight, but repairs can and must succeed. A cooperative Iran is essential for success in Afghanistan—and for a stable Middle East.
The Percolation Effect
Meanwhile, Iran is not North Korea. People in Iran are not cut off from the rest of the world. They have access to TV and the internet, which means that many Iranians will have heard or viewed the unprecedented gesture by an American president who understands what civility is. They, like their leaders, will be processing it. And they will be voting for a new President shortly. No doubt Obama’s advisors were aware of the upcoming elections when they came up with the idea of a Happy New Year message.
Of course, I do not know what the ultimate effect of the presidential New Year message to Iranians will be. All I do know is that it is much too soon to judge that the gesture was a failure. Furthermore, it is absurd to believe that a single speech can make everything right, as if by magic. An improved relationship will occur only if both sides see real benefits from better relations. Bombs won’t accomplish that. Real world based diplomacy may.
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