Elections 2008: A Saturday Afternoon View from New Mexico on the Hustings

By Patricia H. Kushlis

Labor Day’s over and the national political conventions are history.

Cucumber season has passed; the Russian tanks are still in Georgia and Dick Cheney has been shoring up the nervous Ukrainians with NATO promises he can’t deliver while Condi Rice got herself photographed with Gaddafi. The unemployment numbers are in at 6.1% and at the highest level in five years, and the newly anointed GOP king and queen are campaigning against their own party right here in River City on the Rio Grande.

Oh, my gosh. All 6,000 tickets for the greatest-post-coronation-event-ever-set-for-prime-time at the Albuquerque Convention Center at 6 pm tonight (8 pm on the East Coast) are reportedly distributed. Given the rows of unfilled seats for John McCain’s acceptance speech for his party’s nomination Thursday night, I assume the local party faithful have been busy as bees to see that tonight’s great event turn out will outdo the convention in Minnesota, at least, as seen on television. That shouldn’t be hard.

Better sets, please

I assume that tonight's organizers – presumably highly paid professionals imported from the GOP public relations art department - will forgo the stage sets which made both GOP candidates look like the shrunken Alice in Alice and Wonderland and select something more conventional made for TV and You Tube. Hmm, better they hire one of those Hollywood set designers working on a film under production at the studios just south of the airport. Terminator IV (or whatever number) might be appropriate. Now only if there were a sequel to “Top Gun” or “Cool Hand Luke” in the works.

Since Albuquerque is a multi-racial city with a youthful population, viewers should be treated to a crowd that does not look predominately white, male and older than I am. Or if not, the Republicans really do have their work cut out for them. That is if they have a prayer of carrying this state on November 4. Hey, we’re one of eleven swing states and have two more Electoral College votes than Alaska.

Six thousand of the party faithful equal about two large precincts here in the city on the middle Rio Grande. Bernalillo County has the largest population in the state and is the most hotly contested. This is the New Mexico county to watch most intently election night – but don’t expect definitive results to come in any time early.

According to the Bernalillo County Clerk’s Office there were 423 precincts for the 2008 primary. My guess, based on monitoring New Mexico election night reporting several years ago for the now defunct Voter News Service, is that the number of precincts will not vary hugely from the 423 in the primary but a few locations could change between now and then.

New Mexico is a swing state and as New Mexico votes so goes the nation – at least the popular vote.

This is also one of the most politicized electorates in the country and although there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, the Democrats are pretty independent and are known for crossing party lines in the voting booth. That’s why the Democratic Party of New Mexico and Democratic campaign workers (otherwise known as community organizers) have their work cut out for them.

Michelle Obama was here last week to talk about women’s issues at the university and Barack Obama has been here four times during the campaign and will return – not that you would have known about Michelle’s meeting from the reports in the right wing, er independent, Albuquerque Journal. But at least the event with Michelle was at the top of the news (and favorably so) in UNM’s student newspaper The Lobo and I’m going to bet that far more students on this large campus that has more students many times over than the population of Wasilla, Alaska, read The Lobo – or other online sources - than they do The Journal with its subscribers’ only firewall, declining news coverage and dwindling readership.

Or maybe I just missed the Michelle Obama visit story in The Journal because I was so riveted on the two ring circus unfolding in Minneapolis on Wednesday and Thursday.

A Big Question: How will Hispanic women vote?

One of the groups the election in this state is likely to turn on is Hispanic female voters in northern (not southern) New Mexico. Since there seems to be debate about the loyalties of this voting group, the expert I think with the most credibility on predicting and explaining New Mexico Hispanic voters overall and in particular is University of New Mexico political science professor Christine Sierra. She calls it as she sees it (we had numerous discussions on the topic when I was teaching international politics in the department), normally gets it right and has the survey data and analytical expertise to back up her predictions.

Meanwhile, if you can get beyond the half-page coronation style photograph of McCain and Palin – all that’s missing are the crowns and scepters - above the fold and read The Journal article which quotes Christine, here’s what Dan Boyd of the journal reported her as saying: “Palin might mobilize the state’s Republican base, but the staunchly anti-abortion Alaska governor probably won’t get female voters in Democratic strongholds like northern New Mexico to cross party lines. ‘Hispanic women are not going to vote for Palin just because she’s a woman,’ Sierra said.” Here’s a link to the article but it is behind a subscribers firewall.

Looking at the current state of the Senatorial race

Meanwhile, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has just reported – gleefully I might add - that the Republicans (RNSC) cancelled its “entire $2.3 million television buy here” a few days ago apparently because Democratic candidate Tom Udall now has such a commanding lead in the polls that the Republicans are effectively abandoning the race.

The DSCC likewise reported that Tom’s cousin Mark who is running for Senate in Colorado also has a commanding lead despite a $6 million ad campaign against him that was financed by “third-party” Republican groups and which DSCC funding helped counter.

Over and out. For now.

Comments

[Matt]

I was in the press corral for the Michelle Obama event, and I know there were ABQJournal people there.

[PHK]

Matt: Thanks for the info. Did you see any coverage? Or if so, what was the slant and placement? BTW: Did you cover McCain-Palin?