Say it again, Dimitri: A Gift to America from Russia

By Patricia Lee Sharpe

The more the bear growls and paws its Georgian neighbor, the better it is for the US, no thanks to George W. Bush, whose disfunctional aviary of hawks and doves probably helped to create this tragic opening for heavy-handed Russian self-assertion.

Move against our citizens and we will crush you! So says Russia’s cute puppet president Dmitri Medvedev. Say it again, Dimitri! As for the icy-eyed puppeteer and growl-coach Vladimir Putin, he had long contended that NATO expansion on Russian borders is a direct threat to Russian interests. He had virtually guaranteed some sort of quid for the Kosovo quo. Then, stupidly arrogantly, he overdid it, in the manner of his czarist and Soviet forbears, who could never have won an unrigged popularity contest.

Occupying—well, absorbing South Ossetia or Abkhazia was already well under way before the latest adventure. Finishing the job on the pretense of protecting Russian citizens (shades of those American med student pawns in Grenada) from a self-aggrandizing Georgia could have been swallowed, as a fairly uncomfortable lump, by the international community. But gratuitously laying waste to Georgian infrastructure (shades of Israel in Lebanon recently) and brazenly penetrating Georgia ever further while claiming to be doing the opposite, as peace keepers, no less, is as overweeningly foolish as Saakashvilli’s imagining, for a minute, that the US would send in a few divisions to support him in a land war against Russia in the Caucasus. Unlike Grenada, Georgia is not our near abroad.

Old Habits Die Hard

No one can force Russia out of Georgia. But staying there will entail some serious costs, and this has already been a public diplomacy disaster for Moscow. Russia has the money and still has the opportunity to play a strong role on the world stage without resorting to coercion or intimidation, but old habits, it seems, are hard to shake. Russia’s freeze-baby-freeze energy politics have been equally unsubtle, whether directed at Ukraine or at EU members. There are those who think that the action against Georgia is really meant to gain control of the oil and gas pipelines that allow users to circumvent the Russian stranglehold on energy from Central Asia. Not content with getting rich and using the carrot approach to influence, Russia is resorting to the old iron fist. Do it or else!

It won’t be easy, but the U.S. can take advantage of all these missteps to polish its badly tarnished image. I will get to this soon.

Only One Step Backward

Meanwhile, economic pressure and world opinion will eventually force Russia to pull out of Georgia proper, however reluctantly. Most probably Saakashvilli will remain in power. He may even win another election to the presidency, thanks to defiant nationalism, but he will have learned a lesson about Georgia’s proper place as a deferential Russian neighbor. I don’t know whether Georgia will be forced to formally renounce claim to the enclaves it wants so much to retain, but South Ossetia will continue to be an arrow pointing ominously at Tiblisi, and Abkhazia will also be run more openly from Moscow. So far as further ripples are concerned, the Stans have little to fear. Their leaders are probably quite comfortable dealing with a Rus-Putin who won’t nag them about how they stay in power.

In Europe, aside from the possible exception of Ukraine, with its huge Russian minority, I’m not so sure the ripples will go beyond the anxiety-producing stage. It’s hard to see how even the Baltics, the tiniest ex-satellites, can be pried away from NATO or the European Union, when they are freely-associating, totally integrated members, and Poland is evidently going to go ahead with consummating the Russia-opposed missile defense deal with the US. All in all, the Baltics and Eastern Europe cannot be abandoned, today, as they were so often in the 20th century, which is why, perhaps, Russia decided to make its move on Georgia.

An Opening for a New Administration

So Russia is back, big and ugly, which provides a terrific opening for a resurgence of American soft power under a new administration. Despite the halo we like to wear, the U.S. has never been the perfect neighbor or the perfect polity. We have had our more or less imperial impulses over the years, as the so-called “progressive” Left keeps reminding us. But there is ugly and ugly. Until recently Americans have at least been a little ashamed of our lapses into brutality, hegemony or imperfect democracy.

The George W. Bush administration changed that, by contemptuously embracing all three evils in the name of national security and scaring Americans into thinking an all powerful, imperial presidency would be a good thing. The sustaining premise of the administration’s unilateralism was the illusion that the US was strong enough to impose its designs on the world, anywhere, any time, by any means, including torture, without ever having to offer an, “I’m sorry.”

But here is the saving grace, the basis for building the future. Even as the actions of the Bush administration have alienated and appalled the rest of the world, many people in many countries cling to an increasingly distant version of America by saying they still like Americans, as people. Thus, given the fact that Russia is choosing to offer a nasty alternative to Bushian hegemonism, a new administration may enjoy a honeymoon opportunity to demonstrate that the U.S. can come to its senses and recapture its old ability to get things done by persuasion, cooperation, admiration and emulation—as well as wealth and power judiciously applied.

Why Public Diplomacy Languished

The Bush administration had to marginalize public diplomacy. It had to pour money and faith into military-controlled propaganda campaigns because the only product it had to sell was increasingly ugly. At home a well-modulated free market model had been deregulated into a brutal wealth-concentrating machine. Politics had been reduced to plutocracy. Too many Americans kowtowed to a national security state. Foreign policy had become an exercise in presumption, preemption and hypocritical preaching from the pulpit in Washington.

Even if the U.S. had ever been the only possible model for a perfect society, the presumption that we could regulate the entire world would have been, on the face of it, unpalatable. Yet, ironically, the more the US strutted our post Cold War might, the less admirable America was actually becoming. Who needs or wants the current U.S. model? Our health care system is inadequate. Our approach to energy is unrealistic. Our voting methods are untrustworthy. Our infrastructure is crumbling. Our educational system is far from the best in the world. Our demographics ditto.

Cleaning up Our Own House First

Fortunately, the Russians, for all their oil wealth, are in worse shape; and, thanks to Russia’s neo-bearishness, the incoming US administration may have time to convince the world that American policy, foreign and domestic, will be different and better, post George W. Bush. It will not be easy. There is no way to go back to any status quo ante. The world has changed. It is more complex. There are more actual power centers and more countries aspiring to regional hegemony or international decision-making status, which means that our diplomatic capacity doesn’t merely need rebuilding. It needs a massively increased capacity in every way. That will cost money, which will not become available until the military is restored to its proper role of national defense. Not nation-building. Not development. Not public diplomacy. These are all valid national security functions, but they are not best done by command and control structures. (And millions could be saved by ending Pentagon reliance on contractors whose loyalty is only to the bottom line.)

Concurrently, if we are to lead by example and inspiration once again, America’s internal decay must be arrested, which cannot be achieved by tax cutting. So far neither party’s presidential candidate has dared to offer a vision of the society we need to build, if we are to play a major and constructive role in the world that is coming into being. Tinkering at the edges of our current system will not provide us with the human or financial resources to aspire to serious leadership.

Once we divest ourselves of the self-destructive hubris of the Bush administration and began to deal seriously with our own problems, we won’t need duplicitous psy ops or Madison Avenue tricks to manipulate others into cooperating with us. Accurate information will do, accurate information about our society, our policies, our vision, and maybe we’ll even be confident enough (and respect-worthy enough) to tell the story “warts and all,” as was often done in the 20th century.

No New Cold Wars

A final clarification: Though I see the glaring Russian bad example as an opportunity for the U.S. to recapture its influence in the world by looking and behaving more admirably, I am not for a minute suggesting a new bipolar competition with Russia. All I am saying is that, if Russia is reverting to type, maybe we can, too. That will certainly be good for us. And in so far as we play a major role in world affairs, it would be a whole lot better for other people, too.

Comments

[Courtenay Barnett]

You say - "Russia has the money and still has the opportunity to play a strong role on the world stage without resorting to coercion or intimidation, but old habits,..."
Now ask yourself the same question - "America has the money and still has the opportunity to play a strong role on the world stage without resorting to coercion or intimidation, but old habits,..."
Forgot about the 1953
CIA coup and all the others that followed and supported dictatorships?

[pls]

Courtney: Read the piece again. It's all there, though not in detail

[Courtenay Barnett]

You say, "All I am saying is that, if Russia is reverting to type, maybe we can, too."
What I am saying is that the US was behind the Georgian provocation, and it is not helping the cause of "world peace" by placing missiles in Poland.A country (nameless) may be reverting to type. Oh yes - I had read the piece carefully, and read it again.
Later,
CB

[b]

quite some nonsense

Economic pressure? That's a dream. Russia has $600 billion in the bank and no debt. There is money to be made in Russia, it is the biggest European market, capitalists will stay there.

If you believe that a short term drop of a few billion in Russian currency reserves is meaningful, you haven't thought much of economics.

More here:
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2008/08/the-financial-t.html

World opinion? You are mixing up 'western' with 'world'.'Western' is less than 10% of 'world'. 90% have seen stupid Bush puppet that made a big mistake.

Kishore Mahbubani pointed that out in the FT a few days ago.

[Courtenay Barnett]

"B" - Pat was not mixing up - US foreign policy actually does use the words "world opinion" to misrepresent the 10% West, dominated by about 300 million people of the US in the world. US foreign policy does not count the 90% - what counts for big powers is their interest - not the broader interest of the real world and humanity. That seems pretty clear from all that has been said.

[Patricia Kushlis]

Pat: excellent analysis. I too think this was not and will not be seen in history as Russia's "finest hour." I think it will backfire on them just as Iraq 2003 has backfired on the Bush administration. Do I absolve parts of the Bush administration, McCain's chief foreign policy advisor,and the neocon crowd for whatever role they may have played in bolstering and encouraging Saakashvili to go beyond his military's capabilities - no I do not. I hope to see all of them out of positions of power if not influence sooner rather than later.

But, basically, I think the Russian overreaction is, as you say, the Russians being Russians. I think the Georgians walked into a Russian trap (which Condi and some others in the administration apparently warned them to avoid) but I also think the Russians walked into a neocon trap which they should have been smart enough to eschew and which will cost Russians interests mightly in Central/East Europe.

[Courtenay Barnett]

So that missiles can be planted next door? Did the US overreact when the then Soviet Union set about putting missles in Cuba, and the US made the back door deal to pull their missles out of Turkey? Let's get real and stay honest. Sorry - I am not a foreign policy expert.

[Cheryl Rofer]

Courtenay - It is quite obvious that you are not a foreign policy expert. Your objections amount to that you would have preferred a post that says it's all America's fault. You have made this objection to previous posts. I suggest that if you want your opinions written up on a blog, you get one of your own.

[Courtenay Barnett]

Testy today aren't we Cheryl? I always thought that the best way to debate was to exchange ideas and answer points validly raised.I know what I think as I express myself honestly without rancour. Kind regards.

[peace keeper]

Why the American atrocities are not reported and published,it is shame for the world power.
Russia is like a rat it acts when cats are away .
What is purpose of the United nations,will it collapse like league of nations,it is dominated by few power and no action when there is voilation by U.S ,Israil,England ,Germany and Russia. why what is the reason .
Who has to drag Mr.George bush for "War Crimes" against Iraq,one he should be brought to book.